杏吧原创

THE Nile, Tigris, Jordan and Euphrates are rivers that run through the heartlands of human civilisation. Their waters have nourished civilisation for more than ten thousand years. Today, disputes over these rivers鈥� precious waters threaten the peace of the region.

Iraq and Egypt, Israel and Syria 鈥� all have threatened to go to war over water. And a spate of recent books has harped on the theme of coming 鈥渨ater wars鈥�. Daniel Hillel鈥檚 Rivers of Eden is a wise, humane and thorough study of the science and politics of the Middle East鈥檚 water, and it does not dismiss the dangers. But Hillel is dedicated to making peace, not war. So he finds that the region鈥檚 chronic water shortages may be the harbingers of cooperation, not conflict. Only by acting together, with joint cross-border projects and transfer schemes 鈥� not to mention promises not to bomb each other鈥檚 dams 鈥� can nations effectively harness their water supplies. Water is simply too important to fight over.

Hillel is one of the most respected hydrologists in the region. A pioneer of Israeli water-saving techniques for irrigated farming, he is now a leading academic in the US, with a string of UN consultancies, including advising on water for many of the Middle East鈥檚 Arab governments. This is a region where water matters in a way that northern Europeans can scarcely imagine. Libya, a country half the size of Europe, has a total rainfall across its territory that is 鈥渟carcely equal to that of a single province in France鈥�.

He charts the dozens of water disputes that have stemmed from the desperate desire to secure water resources. From Palestinian village wells shut down by Israeli troops on the West Bank, to Turkey鈥檚 damming of the headwaters of the Euphrates, which will wash a quarter of a million angry Kurds out of their homes and reduce the river鈥檚 flow through Iraq by up to 80 per cent. Hillel also has an eye for the ecological blunders. Water from Syria鈥檚 greatest engineering project, the Tabqa Dam, dissolved gypsum in the soils it was meant to irrigate, poisoning crops.

The 鈥渃ulture of waste鈥� endemic in the use of water in many Middle Eastern countries is the target for Hillel鈥檚 harshest criticism. Egypt, one of the worst offenders, claims perpetual water shortages, despite having an annual resource of more than 1200 cubic metres per head 鈥� more than three times that of Israel, and four times that of Jordan.

Future disputes could involve underground water reserves, he says. Several aquifers stretch beneath national borders. Colonel Gaddafi has spent almost $20 billion so far on his Great Manmade River, which collects ancient water held in rocks beneath the remote Sahara and pipes it to coastal farms. But in so doing he is apparently drying out Egyptian oases. Most aquifers in the north of Africa refill only slowly, if at all. Once emptied, many aquifers will remain empty forever.

Hillel promotes the revival of ancient water-collecting techniques such as digging dykes across deserts to channel occasional flash floods onto fields. But he is no enemy of 鈥渕egaprojects鈥�. He refuses to condemn Gaddafi鈥檚 great river. And he gives a cautious welcome to the World Bank鈥檚 plans to dig a canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, following the Israeli-Jordan border. It would exploit the 400-metre height difference between the seas to generate hydroelectricity that could power desalination works to provide fresh water. He looks forward to schemes to bring water from the Nile to the Gaza Strip, from the wet hills of Lebanon to parched Jordan and the Palestinian West Bank.

Projects like these can be contemplated and funded only in times of peace. The region, he says, is at a moral watershed. It can choose: to fight for water, or to cooperate over it. The rivers can run with water 鈥� or blood.