ONE of the largest concentrations of computing power in the world is at Britain鈥檚 Meteorological Office in Bracknell, Berkshire. Every day, the computers crunch numbers on a vast scale to provide weather forecasts. But forecasting tomorrow鈥檚 weather is much easier than keeping track of some rather smaller numbers 鈥� the cash in the Met Office鈥檚 bank account 鈥� according to a report from the National Audit Office.
Ever since it became an executive agency in 1990, the Met Office has been required to increase its income from selling commercial services. But while it claims to have reached its sales targets, the NAO says it has fudged the figures by failing to compare like with like.
The government set the Met Office a sales target of 拢19.1 million for 1993-94. The NAO says that this target applied to the cash that the Met Office banked. But the Met Office only met this target by calculating its performance on basis of the invoices it had sent out. This figure included some 拢600 000 which was not banked until the next financial year. The NAO says that when it recalculated the figures it found that the Met Office had missed its cash target by 拢300 000.
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鈥淭he annual targets have not been set on a consistent basis,鈥� the NAO says. 鈥淚n two years out of four, reported performance has been calculated on a different basis from that used in setting the target.鈥�
The NAO also challenges the Met Office鈥檚 claim to have improved efficiency. The Met Office claimed to have met 75 per cent of the efficiency targets laid down in its corporate plan. But the NAO says that again the Met Office was not measuring its performance against the same yardstick it used to set the target. The NAO says that the Met Office only met 40 per cent of its efficiency targets.
When the Met Office became an executive agency it was given greater power to handle its 拢150 million annual budget. The NAO is critical of some of the decisions it has made. In May 1993, for example, the Met Office鈥檚 director of finance left three years into a five-year contract. He was paid 拢100 000 in compensation. The Treasury believed that the compensation was excessive, but no longer had the power to intervene.
The Met Office did better at forecasting the weather. As a barometer of its forecasting skill, the NAO looked at the 5.55 pm forecast on BBC Radio 4. The Met Office aims to get this right 84 per cent of the time. It has met or beaten the target for the past three years.
One of the Met Office鈥檚 most important services is its forecasts for aerodromes, which help pilots and airlines determine whether it is safe to take off or land. The NAO points out that these forecasters missed their accuracy target for 1992-93. A spokesman for the Civil Aviation Authority, which buys these forecasts, says: 鈥淏roadly speaking we are very, very happy. Their service is second to none.鈥�
The Met Office would not comment on the report. However, it was welcomed by a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence, the government department responsible for the Met Office. He says that the report generally praised the Met Office鈥檚 forecasts but he acknowledges that there was 鈥渞oom for improvement鈥� in its business efficiency.