EARLY British snow notwithstanding, 1995 is likely to be the world鈥檚 warmest year since records began, say researchers at the Meteorological Office鈥檚 Hadley Centre. 鈥淲e have all the November data in from round the world,鈥� says David Parker, 鈥渁nd so far we are 0.05 掳C warmer than the previous record-holder, 1990.鈥�
Last week, the UN鈥檚 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change met in Rome, and concluded that 鈥渢he balance of evidence鈥� suggests that human activities are warming the planet. The four warmest years worldwide have all been in the 1990s, with nine of the ten warmest occurring since 1980.
The record spectacularly confirms the predictions of climate modellers that global temperatures 鈥� which fell in 1991 and 1992, following the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in mid-1991 鈥� would bounce back with a vengeance in the mid-1990s. Pinatubo sent a veil of particles into the stratosphere, which shielded the Earth from solar radiation for about two years.
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This year鈥檚 record is 0.4 掳C warmer than the average for the period 1961 to 1990, and 0.8 掳C warmer than the period from 1861 to 1890.
Last week鈥檚 meeting of the IPCC was the first full assessment of global warming by the panel for five years. The IPCC ignored delaying tactics by the oil-producing nations Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and issued its firmest warning yet of 鈥渇loods, droughts, fires [and] pest outbreaks鈥� as global warming gathers pace.
At the end of February, its report will be submitted to the signatories to the Climate Change Convention. The signatories decided earlier this year to negotiate targets by 1997 for cuts in emissions of greenhouse gases. The cuts will take effect after the year 2000.
The convention鈥檚 aim is to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at levels that are not 鈥渄angerous鈥�. The IPCC agreed last week that almost any target chosen will require major cuts in emissions. For instance, to maintain a long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at twice pre-industrial levels will require cuts of more than 50 per cent.