A NEW Australian study, which takes a longer term view of climate change than ever before, foresees no end to global warming in the next 150 years. By this time the average world temperature will be about 4掳C hotter. Heating on this scale will have a widespread impact on the natural world and on human health.
These are the conclusions of Martin Dix and Barrie Hunt of the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research in Melbourne. Their projections are based on an expected growth in emissions of carbon dioxide because of increasing use of fossil fuels 鈥� coal, oil and gas. Hunt and Dix believe consumption of fossil fuels will grow as industry develops in the Third World. In addition, many of the countries which are already industrialised, such as Australia, still talk in terms of increasing fossil fuel use.
Because it was assumed that greenhouse emissions would eventually be stabilised, past climate models have only considered the implications of doubling carbon dioxide levels. But most countries aren鈥檛 yet taking the issue of global warming seriously, Hunt says, so it is important to look at what will happen if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases to three times the pre-industrial level. On current trends, he says, that is likely to happen by about the end of next century.
Advertisement
The report, which was commissioned by the Department of Environment, Sport and Territories, has been released during the summer silly season, so the response has been muted. It shows that global temperatures are likely to be about 2-2掳C higher than now in 2100 and nearly 4掳C higher by 2150. (Already, the world is about 0.7掳C warmer than a century ago).
The figures in the report should cause enough unease to provoke action in Canberra, such as serious plans to stabilise Australia鈥檚 emissions of greenhouse gases. But I wouldn鈥檛 count on it in the present political climate. In a pre-election period, gaseous emissions normally increase dramatically!
THE issue of climate change was also on the front page of the newspapers in Hawaii while I was there last week for a conference. Temperature data show that 1995 was the hottest year on record for the main island of Oahu. The previous record was set in 1994. To the untutored eye, that might suggest a bit of a trend, but the Press was careful to say that global warming couldn鈥檛 be blamed for the increasing temperatures.
I saw other examples of Hawaii of a refusal to accept scientific explanations. An exhibition at the Bishop Museum in Honolulu documents the huge body of evidence showing that the original Hawaiians arrived from Polynesia somewhere between 1000 and 1200 years ago. But at the end of the display was the startling conclusion that 鈥渟cience cannot cast any light on the belief that God put the Hawaiian people on these islands鈥�.
Not everything in Hawaii, however, is from the pre-scientific age. Honolulu already boasts three Internet coffee shops, where you can buy a cappuccino and use the Net for between A$5 and A$8 an hour.
With such facilities sprouting all over the developed world 鈥� including such antipodean strongholds as Melbourne, Fremantle and even Christchurch 鈥� it is easy to assume that familiarity with the Internet is widespread. But a recent survey in the US 鈥� by far the world鈥檚 largest user of the Internet -showed that fewer than one person in 30 there has access to the technology.
ARE women treated fairly on the Internet? 鈥� not according to Australian feminist Dale Spender. In a new book called Nattering on the Net; Women, Power and Cyberspace, Spender argues that the Net is dominated by men. As well as modestly claiming that hers may be the last book you will ever read, she states that the road rules for the information superhighway are being written by men and are not necessarily how women would like things run.
She also says that men are much more aggressive on the Net towards those they know to be women than to other men. Men also presume a level of familiarity beyond what women might like. Spender has even coined a term for this, 鈥渄ata rape鈥�.
The Australian government, through the Department of Communication and the Arts, sponsored the launch of Spender鈥檚 book and is concerned enough to be reportedly considering gender issues as part of the development of a National Strategy on Information and Communications Services.
But at present uses don鈥檛 have to declare their gender on the Net. I tried to determine the ratio of male to female users on one list, but was forced to give up when I couldn鈥檛 detect the gender of a significant minority.