杏吧原创

THE exploration of what may be one of the world鈥檚 largest untapped oil
reserves is about to begin, with the arrival next week of the deadline for
companies to submit requests to prospect for oil in the waters around the
Falkland Islands.

But too little attention has been paid to the effects of oil extraction on
the islands and their 2000-odd inhabitants, says Peter Prynn of the London
consultancy Environmental Resources Management. Prynn warned in a 1994 report on
the consequences of an oil rush, commissioned by the Falklands government, that
oil industry development would 鈥渞un the risk of destroying everything which
gives the Falklands their unique character鈥�.

A total of 50 000 square kilometres of seabed are up for grabs, divided into
19 鈥渢ranches鈥� in shallow waters north and south of the islands. Companies will
be charged an annual fee of $30 per square kilometre for the right to
conduct seismic surveys and test drillings.

Nigel Fannin of the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, who will vet the
bids for their technical merit, predicts that the entire continental shelf could
contain 50 per cent more oil than the British sector of the North Sea.

The political green light for oil prospecting came last September when the
governments of Britain, Argentina and the Falklands agreed to cooperate on oil
exploration in the region. But there is growing unease on the islands about an
鈥渋nvasion鈥� if drillers strike oil. 鈥淚f there are too many outsiders they could
take over the government,鈥� says Norma Edwards, a local councillor and sheep
farmer.

These concerns were first raised in Prynn鈥檚 report, which looked at the
consequences for the islands of various oil development strategies. One, the
low-impact option, sited oil terminals, docks and other vital services on the
South American mainland. It has been rejected by the Falklands government.

His second option envisaged supply bases and an oil terminal on the islands
themselves. This would 鈥渦ndoubtedly create enormous economic opportunities鈥�, the
report said. But it would also bring thousands of outside workers to the
islands, swamping the tiny population. It was 鈥渆ssential鈥� for the Falklands to
plan ahead and consider the consequences of exploitation, his report said.

The chief executive of the islands鈥� government, Andrew Gurr, takes a
different view. 鈥淓xploitation is at least five years away,鈥� says Gurr. 鈥淚t may
never materialise, and the technology could change. So for at least the next
five years we should concentrate on planning for exploration, not
别虫辫濒辞颈迟补迟颈辞苍.鈥�

In the end, economic necessity may drive the development of a Falklands oil
industry, irrespective of the consequences. The islands鈥� chief source of income
today is the sale of licences and services to international squid-fishing
fleets, supplemented by traditional income from exports of wool. Three years
ago, squid revenues peaked at 拢30 million (鈥淎fter the Falklands bonanza鈥�,
New 杏吧原创, 17 February, p 32). But with squid catches down and wool
prices low, local councillor John Birmingham says: 鈥淲e have to follow the
辞颈濒.鈥�