IS the world plunging into an overpopulated urban sprawl or have
apocalyptic visions of 鈥渕egacities鈥� been exaggerated? Two UN agencies have come
up with conflicting predictions on the eve of the conference on human
settlements, which starts in Istanbul next week. One charts an 鈥渦rban explosion鈥�
in the Third World. The other says that if there ever was an urban population
bomb, it has long since been defused.
This week, the UN Population Fund (UNPF) published its annual report on the
state of the world鈥檚 population. The report focuses on the 鈥渦nprecedented urban
growth now taking place in developing countries鈥�, and the danger that cities
from Bombay to Lagos to Mexico City will be 鈥渙verwhelmed by the sheer numbers of
the poor and the dispossessed鈥�.
But next week in Istanbul the UN Centre for Human Settlements (UNCHS), the
agency organising the conference, will unveil its own very different analysis.
This 560-page study, An Urbanizing World, maintains that the growth of
most cities was slower in the 1980s than in any of the three previous decades.
In fact, it argues, in percentage terms urbanisation peaked in the 1950s. In the
1980s, it says, 鈥渇or many of the world鈥檚 largest cities, more people moved out
than in鈥�.
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The UNPF, however, predicts that the number of megacities鈥攚hich it
defines as those with more than 10 million inhabitants鈥攚ill increase from
14 today to 27 by the year 2015, with Bombay, Karachi, Lagos and Dhaka, the
Bangladeshi capital, leading the rush. 鈥淭he proportion of the world鈥檚 population
living in the largest cities is increasing,鈥� it says.
Maybe, says the UNCHS, but megacities have not grown as much as predicted a
decade ago by the demographers at the UNPF. 鈥淥nly 3 per cent of the world鈥檚
population lives in megacities,鈥� says David Satterthwaite of the International
Institute for Environment and Development in London, one of the authors of the
UNCHS report. And most megacities are growing little faster than the overall
world population. The main growth is in smaller cities, he says.
鈥淭he UNPF report talks of unprecedented urban growth, but that is rubbish,鈥�
says Satterthwaite. 鈥淢anchester two hundred years ago was growing as fast as any
city today. Some of the fastest growing cities are still in the richest
countries鈥擫as Vegas, for instance. And in the developing world, the
biggest urban growth is in the fastest growing economies, such as China and
Brazil. The trouble with reports such as this is that they give the impression
that it is always the poor who are to blame.鈥�
Alex Marshall of the UNPF says the fund has tried not to be all doom and
gloom. 鈥淐ertainly things have changed for the better, but in many big cities
there is a huge danger of creating a vast urban underclass.鈥�
The conflicting interpretations go to the heart of one of the major themes of
the conference: are Third World megacities a drag on economic development or are
they the engines that drive it? 鈥淚n Istanbul, rapid urbanisation is likely to be
highlighted as a major economic problem,鈥� says Satterthwaite. But the truth may
be the opposite.
In the past twenty years, he says, 鈥渢he countries with the most successful
economic performances have had the most rapid urban changes鈥�, notably the tiger
economies of East and Southeast Asia.
Even the basic proposition behind the conference鈥攖hat within ten years
the majority of people will be living in urban areas鈥攊s questioned by the
UNCHS report. It points out that 鈥渁 significant proportion of the world鈥檚
`urban鈥� population live in small market towns and administrative centres鈥�,
rather than cities. Many areas defined as urban in India and China, the world鈥檚
two most populous countries, would be described by most people as
rural鈥攆arming areas around such 鈥渕egacities鈥� as Shanghai and Beijing,
Calcutta and Bombay.
鈥淚t would only take China or India to change their definition of urban
centres for there to be a significant decrease in the proportion of the world鈥檚
population living in urban centres,鈥� says the UNCHS.
But while many Third World cities exaggerate their size by drawing wide city
limits, some other cities are too modest. For example, London is defined by the
boundaries of the old Greater London Council, giving it a population of just 6.4
million. This leaves the city 23rd in the pecking order of world cities, down
from second place half a century ago. But if an international definition of the
city鈥檚 鈥渕etropolitan region鈥� were adopted instead, then, says the UNCHS, London
would have a population of 12.5 million鈥攁nd leap straight back into the
world鈥檚 top six megacities.
