杏吧原创

STONEWALLING by the US, Australia and others could scupper negotiations
aimed at halting global warming, according to European negotiators. The warning
comes as countries prepare for the second meeting of signatories to the Climate
Change Convention, which starts in Geneva on Monday. But the Europeans鈥� strong
words could be undermined by figures which suggest that European Union
countries
are failing to meet even their modest current targets for limiting carbon
dioxide emissions.

Last week in Luxembourg, environment ministers from the 15 EU states
concluded that the negotiating process, intended to produce tough new targets
for cutting greenhouse gas emissions in the years after 2000, 鈥渋s not advancing
as needed to achieve its intended objective鈥�. One government negotiator,
speaking under condition of anonymity, told New 杏吧原创: 鈥淓uropean
states have put up proposals, but there has been silence from the US and
Australian governments. We don鈥檛 know where they stand.鈥�

The negotiations were launched by convention signatories in Berlin in April
last year. At that meeting, countries agreed to come up with firm targets and
timetables for cutting emissions of CO₂ in time for agreement in Japan
next year.

Last week, Europe鈥檚 environment ministers agreed that the latest scientific
report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
published last
month, 鈥渦nderlined the need for urgent action鈥� on global warming. The IPCC鈥檚
scientists have consistently declined to recommend an upper limit for CO
₂ in the atmosphere, arguing that the decision is ultimately a political
one.

Europe鈥檚 environment ministers have become the first to grasp that
nettle. At
last week鈥檚 meeting, they agreed that 鈥済iven the serious risks . . . global
average temperatures should not exceed 2 掳C above preindustrial levels鈥�.
According to the IPCC鈥檚 projections, this means that the concentration of
CO
₂ in the atmosphere should never be allowed to rise above 550 parts per
million. The current figure is 360 ppm. Because CO₂ lasts in the
atmosphere for many decades, keeping below the 550 ppm level will require the
world to reduce future emissions of CO₂ by more than 50 per cent.

But the EU鈥檚 negotiating position at next week鈥檚 climate meeting may well be
undermined by figures showing that a gap has opened up between the reduction in
CO₂ emissions that EU countries claim they can achieve with existing
policies, and what the European Commission in Brussels calculates is likely to
happen.

The EU鈥檚 15 member states have submitted figures that say they will have
reduced total emissions of CO₂ by 1 per cent by 2000. But a survey by
the commission, completed in March, instead predicts a 3 per cent rise.

Whoever is right, most of the cuts will be made by Germany, partly through
shutting down dirty and obsolete East German factories and power stations.
Luxembourg is set to cut its emissions by 20 per cent, according to the
European
Commission鈥檚 figures. The Commission expects Portugal鈥檚 CO₂ emissions
to rise by 36 per cent and Finland鈥檚 by 33 per cent. The British government鈥檚
figures predict a 6 per cent cut as coal-fired power stations are replaced with
cleaner gas-fired plants. The commission, however, predicts that these changes
will only cut emissions by 2 per cent.

A separate report carried out by the Climate Change Convention鈥檚 secretariat
supports the European Commission鈥檚 assertion that many countries are not making
the progress on CO₂ emissions that they claim. 鈥淭he CO₂
emissions of most developed countries are likely to exceed 1990 levels in 2000,
unless additional measures are taken,鈥� the report states.