THE growth of the world鈥檚 population has slowed dramatically and
unexpectedly, according to a UN study to be published early next year. At the
start of the 1990s, the global population was growing by 90 million people a
year, but that figure has since slumped to 80 million.
The UN Population Division鈥檚 latest biennial analysis is being circulated
among demographers. It reveals that the average growth rate of the world鈥檚
population from 1990 to 1995 was 1.48 per cent per year, rather than the 1.57
per cent predicted in the previous analysis.
The cause is a decline in world fertility. In 1950, women worldwide had an
average of 5 children over their reproductive life. Last year the figure was
2.9, compared to a prediction of 3.04 made two years ago. In Bangladesh, for
instance, the fertility rate has fallen from 7 children per woman 20 years ago
to 3.5 last year鈥攁gain well below the previous estimate of about 3.9.
Advertisement
This means that the population of many countries will stabilise during the
next century. Europe鈥檚 population is already stable and expected to decline. The
number of people in China should stabilise within 40 years. But other countries
are lagging behind. India, according to the latest UN projections, will pass
China to become the world鈥檚 most populous nation, with 1.6 billion people by
2050.
The new UN figures also suggest that a population landmark has been reached
this year. Africa鈥檚 population is believed to have exceeded Europe鈥檚 for the
first time in recorded history. 鈥淣igeria alone will have twice the population of
western Europe by 2050, at around 350 million,鈥� says Gerhard Heilig of the
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, based in Austria.
