Prescott鈥檚 strategy has been simple: break the political deadlock by
postponing decisions on all the nasty details鈥攁bout trading in emissions
permits and gaining carbon 鈥渃redits鈥� from planting trees and plugging gas
pipelines in other countries鈥攗ntil another day. That way, everybody鈥檚
negotiating needs could be accommodated.
Politically, it is clever. But for the environment it is potentially
disastrous. As we report elsewhere
(p 6), the scientific uncertainties involved
in manipulating the natural environment to increase its potential to absorb and
retain carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are immense. Prescott talks of
leaving the 鈥渕odalities鈥� to scientists at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. But if the science isn鈥檛 doable, then the politics should not be doable
either.
And the potential for outright fraud is vast. European delegates in Kyoto
were ruefully considering how many farmers in southern Europe routinely gain
subsidies from the European Union for olive and citrus crops that were never
grown. Translate that to planting trees across the tropics. However detailed the
documentation, however tightly drawn the modalities, the 鈥渃arbon mafiosi鈥� could
have a field day. Similar dirty dealing awaits the likely complex arrangements
for emissions trading.
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With tough reduction targets, a little criminality and a little sleight of
hand at the margins might not matter much. But with weak targets, they will
matter a great deal, to the planet鈥檚 climate.