Hong Kong
DISEASE and death will increase steeply among China鈥檚 city dwellers unless
the country tackles its growing air pollution problems, warns the World
Bank.
The bank鈥檚 report on the environment in East Asia, released last week, is the
most detailed yet on the downside of China鈥檚 recent economic boom. It claims
that if urban air pollution continues to grow at current rates, the number of
premature deaths in China will increase from 218 000 to 850 000 a year, cases of
chronic bronchitis from 2 million to 7.4 million and bouts of respiratory
symptoms from 6 billion to 22 billion by 2020. The authors, who based their
research on statistics from the Chinese government and independent research
institutes, say China must invest now in clean engine technologies for cars and
less polluting fuels for heating or face a crisis early next century.
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China relies heavily on coal. Although its large industries and power plants
are decreasing their emissions of particulate matter or holding them steady,
emissions from domestic cooking and heating fuels in cities are
increasing鈥攎ost small boilers used by households are old and highly
inefficient. Levels of suspended particulates and sulphur dioxide in Chinese
cities rank among the highest in the world.
In 11 large Chinese cities looked at in the study鈥攊ncluding Beijing,
Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Harbin and Chengdu鈥攑articulates from coal
burning cause more than 50 000 premature deaths and 400 000 cases of chronic
bronchitis a year. The cost of damage caused by air pollution in all Chinese
cities already exceeds 20 per cent of the total income of city dwellers.
Richard Ackermann, the World Bank鈥檚 environmental manager for Asia and a
joint author of the study, says China faces a bigger challenge than its
neighbours because of its extensive use of coal. 鈥淭he biggest problem in China
is the state-owned enterprises. They will have to be restructured, privatised or
closed down and the social costs will be enormous, so it will not happen
辞惫别谤苍颈驳丑迟.鈥�
He says that the Chinese government understands the problem and has already
taken steps to reduce air pollution in the larger cities. The World Bank points
out that the problem could be greatly reduced by investing about 1 per cent of
the country鈥檚 annual GDP in reducing pollution over the next 25 years. It says
that China should use cleaner coal and rely more on gas, as well as introduce
stricter maintenance programmes for vehicles, lower the sulphur content of fuel,
introduce clean engine technology and use liquefied petroleum gas instead of
coal.
The World Bank鈥檚 prognosis is backed up by a study released this week by the
Regional Institute of Environmental Technology in Singapore, which lists acid
rain, lung disease and polluted drinking water as among the worst side effects
of China鈥檚 recent economic success.
Yong-Yuan Yin, who is studying air pollution at Hong Kong University, says
that even if China鈥檚 air pollution does not reach the levels predicted by the
World Bank, there is no doubt that the situation is worsening. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a dilemma
between environmental and economic goals,鈥� says Yin.