Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible by Arthur
C. Clarke, Gollancz, 拢18.99, ISBN 057506790X
Pioneers of Wonder: Conversations with the Founders of Science Fiction
by Eric Leif Davin, Prometheus, $24.95, ISBN 1573927023
Predictions edited by Sian Griffiths, Oxford, 拢12.99, ISBN
0192862103
Advertisement
ANY year ending in a zero, let alone two or three, provokes orgies of crystal
gazing about how life will change in the new decade, century or millennium. Who
are we better off inviting to the party鈥攕cientists or science fiction
writers?
Science fiction writers seem the more exciting guests, not least because they
can promiscuously scatter predictions towards the vast barn door of the future,
knowing posterity will record only those that hit. With the misses unrecorded,
the hits often look amazingly prescient. Compare Murray Leinster鈥檚 1946 short
story 鈥淎 Logic Named Joe鈥濃�攃ontaining not just multimedia computers and the
Internet, but the consequent furore over access to dangerous information and
naughty pictures鈥攚ith that staple of the era, the meal-in-a-pill.
Arthur C. Clarke proposed 鈥淟aws鈥� for the prediction business in his essay
collection Profiles of the Future that when elderly distinguished
scientists say something is impossible they are very probably wrong; that the
only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture into the
impossible; and that sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
magic. It outlines a sheaf of future possibilities such as devices for
controlling gravity. Dating from 1962, and now revised for the millennium, this
remains enjoyable though no longer cutting edge.
Eric Lief Davin鈥檚 gossipy interviews with founders of the genre in
Pioneers of Wonder are aimed at science fiction history buffs. Even so,
serendipitous bullseyes are noted, such as the anticipation of organ transplants
in a 1927 story rousingly titled 鈥淣ew Stomachs for Old鈥�, and science fiction
editor David Lasser鈥檚 suggestion that long-distance missiles would revolutionise
warfare鈥攔idiculed in 1931.
Which illustrates probably the biggest advantage science fiction writers have
over scientists: when it comes to predicting the future, they can let loose
their imaginations without having to fuss about their dignity and professional
standing. It鈥檚 different for the contributors to Predictions. Promising
鈥�30 great minds on the future鈥�, the book is a collection of profiles culled from
the Times Higher Education Supplement of 30 notables, followed by a
short 鈥減rediction鈥� from each.
Many, alas, refuse to play. Failure of nerve or of imagination? Umberto Eco
merely issues a warning against preconceptions. J. K. Galbraith hates making
economic predictions because 鈥渙nly the wrong ones are remembered鈥�. Stephen Jay
Gould reckons the future is too complex for anyone to guess 鈥渆ven a single
scientific breakthrough鈥�. Spoilsports.
Others avoid commitment by simply expressing warm hopes: Andrea Dworkin for
an end to patriarchy; Paul Nurse, director of the Imperial Cancer Research Fund,
for full understanding of how cells function; Peter Singer, Australian
philosopher and controversialist, for improved animal rights; and so on.
And some place bets on their own work. Maverick biologist Lynn Margulis
imagines a new biological orthodoxy emerging, founded on her view of symbiosis
rather than competition as the ultimate key to the evolution of life. Global
warming guru Sherwood Rowland of the University of California, Irvine sees
carbon dioxide sequestration鈥攑lanting forests, for example鈥攂eing
legally enforced by 2100.
Happily, several contributors do stick their necks out. Richard Dawkins
expects to see the problem of consciousness solved, but neurobiologist Susan
Greenfield disagrees鈥攁nd worries that gene therapy (the most frequent
prophecy) implies the standardised humans of 鈥渢he 1984 scenario鈥�, though
Brave New World might be nearer the mark.
A sufficiently prominent science fiction writer, however, seems to be
indistinguishable from an expert. Clarke is here, gamely predicting
intelligences that live in machines鈥斺�漵trong AI鈥濃�攁nd new drives which
permit galactic space exploration.