SINP鈥橭 is a quiet coastal town in North Korea on the edge of the Japan Sea, a
two-hour helicopter ride from the capital Pyongyang. The landscape is idyllic
with a beautiful, unspoilt beach and clusters of shabby houses and farms. This
is not quite what I鈥檇 expected. I was at Sinp鈥檕 on a European Parliament visit
to the site of a nuclear power plant that was due to be finished in two years鈥�
time. But there鈥檚 a good reason for the lack of activity. The two light water
reactors being built there are way behind schedule鈥攕even years to be
exact.
What were we doing checking on the progress of a Korean construction project?
And don鈥檛 MEPs have better things to do than visit building sites in Asia? Good
questions to which there鈥檚 a simple answer: if the project drags on for much
longer, it won鈥檛 just be a problem for MEPs. We could all end up remembering
Sinp鈥檕, as the cause of the world鈥檚 first nuclear war.
The world came close to nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis in
1962鈥攊f you believe the KGB and the CIA. The Sinp鈥檕 reactors are the price
of averting war with North Korea some 32 years later. In 1994, both the US and
Russian security services told their governments that North Korea had at least
one and maybe five nuclear bombs. They claimed that North Korea had built the
bombs by diverting plutonium from its Russian-designed reactor at Yongbyon in
the north of the country. The International Atomic Energy Agency asked to
inspect the reactor. North Korea refused and suspended its membership of the
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.
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We all know what happened next. The Pentagon prepared for air strikes against
North Korea with a fleet of F111 jets on stand-by at Okinawa, Japan. At the same
time North Korea threatened to retaliate by turning Seoul into a 鈥渟ea of fire鈥�.
But Former US president Jimmy Carter spoke to Kim Il Sung, North Korea鈥檚 leader,
and disaster was averted. Kim agreed to negotiate if the US planes stayed on the
ground. They did. And the world eased back from the brink.
All sides then sat down to discuss the next move. North Korea insisted that
nuclear power was the answer to its energy crisis. But after much bargaining, it
promised to close down and seal the Yongbyon plant, stop building another
reactor capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, and allow all spent fuel
to be exported for permanent storage overseas.
In return, the US said it would put together a consortium to build two light
water reactors on the original site of North Korea鈥檚 second nuclear power plant.
Light water reactors cannot produce weapons-grade plutonium. In the meantime the
US also promised to supply North Korea with 500,000 tonnes of heavy fuel oil
every year to ease the country鈥檚 energy shortage while the light water reactors
were being built.
It seemed like a perfect technological fix to a political crisis. But the
deal began to unravel almost as quickly as it had been signed. Although the
Americans brokered the agreement, they expected someone else to pick up the tab,
and it was a hefty one鈥�$4.6 billion to be exact. Other countries
had their arms twisted to find the money. South Korea agreed to contribute
two-thirds of the final cost, Japan put up $1 billion, and an assorted
collection of other countries threw in some small change. The most generous of
these offerings was the European Union鈥檚 $75 million.
But worse was to come. The US was supposed to pay for the heavy fuel oil. Yet
the Republican-controlled Congress didn鈥檛 see it that way, and refused to
authorise the money for what it considered to be a 鈥渞ogue state鈥�. In the end
heavy fuel oil was bought with the EU money. And not a moment too soon. During
the coldest months of the year, electricity in Pyongyang switches on and off
like Christmas lights.
North Korean belief in American good faith was plummeting, but the US
authorities weren鈥檛 the only offenders. Japan didn鈥檛 help matters by getting
irate over a Korean rocket that flew over Japan in August 1998. The rocket was a
failed satellite launch. It didn鈥檛 break any existing agreement. Indeed, North
Korea sells rockets to buy food鈥攐ne in eight North Koreans have died of
hunger in the past four years. That didn鈥檛 stop the Japanese public venting its
spleen on the streets. Parliament bowed to public opinion, and held onto its
$1 billion assistance for another year.
North Korea is hardly free of blame over Sinp鈥檕 though. In the original
agreement, the country鈥檚 leadership agreed to pay nuclear construction workers
$100 per month. But they later discovered that South Korean personnel
doing similar work were earning eight to ten times the North Korean wage. North
Korea withdrew all but a hundred workers from the site. And the stand-off shows
no sign of being resolved.
The delay in construction could be fatal, as the original $4.6 billion
cost doubles to $9 billion. South Korea will still contribute its
promised two-thirds. But who will meet the growing funding gap? North Korea鈥檚
patience is clearly wearing thin. Remember, it agreed to this scheme in return
for a new energy source by 2002. Relations between the warring neighbours have
thawed greatly during this time. But one North Korean official told me 鈥淲e will
reopen our [Yongbyon] nuclear plant鈥� if the Sinp鈥檕 project isn鈥檛 completed, or
if compensation isn鈥檛 agreed.
The project isn鈥檛 perfect. But it鈥檚 better than watching North Korea unpack
its stored fuel and US bombers revving up their engines again. If $9
billion sounds like a lot of money, it鈥檚 a bargain-basement price to avoid
unthinkable tragedy. Nietzsche said: 鈥淢adness is rare in individuals, but common
in parties, groups and organisations.鈥� If you didn鈥檛 know better, you might have
thought he drew those conclusions from a case study of the Sinp鈥檕 project.