PRESIDENT Bush is backing a 鈥渟on of Star Wars鈥�. But can he be persuaded to
adopt a 鈥渟on of Kyoto鈥�? That鈥檚 the question on everyone鈥檚 lips in Bonn as they
argue over the Kyoto Protocol. And it could well dominate the G8 meeting in
Genoa next week as well.
Whether the Kyoto Protocol survives or not, global warming will not go away.
That means getting to grips with what Bush鈥檚 father signed up for at the Climate
Change Convention in Rio nine years ago鈥攕tabilising greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere below 鈥渄angerous鈥� levels. But who should decide what counts as
dangerous? Executive secretary of the convention, genial Maltese diplomat
Michael Zammit Cutajar, believes the only way forward is for politicians to
suggest target ceilings and for scientists to work out the implications of each
one for the planet. That way politicians get all the information they need to
make a rational decision.
In reality this could be a recipe for inaction. For years now, climate
scientists have been egged on to ever more specific predictions about the
future. But the uncertainties grow at every step. Global warming could toss some
really nasty surprises our way as it buffets the climate
(see 鈥淰iolent future鈥�).
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It鈥檚 time politicians woke up and smelt the coffee. Science will never be
able to pronounce precisely on our climate future. It will never find every
feedback loop. From where we sit, the uncertainties underline the need for
immediate action. But it鈥檚 not a decision for scientists. The global community
and its elected politicians have to take the plunge. We sink or swim
together.