WHO鈥橲 behind these anthrax attacks and how much material do they have? As
New 杏吧原创 went to press, the US agencies handling the attacks still
had no answers. One thing, though, was crystal clear: they were doing a stunning
job of confusing themselves and everyone else about the nature of the anthrax
and the kinds of people and organisations who might have the wit to get hold of
it or make it.
It started with officials nonsensically claiming the first victim could have
got inhalation anthrax by drinking water in the woods. Then came confusion about
the type of anthrax involved. FBI officials say it鈥檚 the American Ames strain,
yet, bizarrely, their headquarters is still refusing to confirm this. Most
worryingly, numerous hawks on Capitol Hill have been spinning the line that the
sophisticated 鈥渨eaponisation鈥� of the anthrax in the letters justifies bombing
Iraq. Yet it is impossible to find out just how 鈥渨eaponised鈥� the anthrax is
(see 鈥淭rail of terror鈥�).
Even Tom Ridge, the new Homeland Security czar, doesn鈥檛 seem to know.
Similar government confusion in the aftermath of a smallpox attack could
prove disastrous. Unlike anthrax, the smallpox virus is highly contagious,
especially in the early days of an infection, before most people would realise
they had it. To contain any attacks, the authorities would have to move fast to
vaccinate whole communities and isolate infected people and also anyone who鈥檇
come into contact with them.
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What鈥檚 more, the terror factor would be on a different scale from the anthrax
letters. Even the calmest person would panic, looking for symptoms, wanting to
know if they are at risk and should get vaccinated. Millions might start
demanding a jab they didn鈥檛 need while some who did need it might refuse. In
such circumstances, timely, credible information from the government would spell
the difference between containment and catastrophe.
Unfortunately, vaccinating everyone ahead of a possible attack is not the
answer. The jab is too risky to justify giving it to people simply as a
precaution, and right now there is no evidence that terrorists have got their
hands on any smallpox. The two remaining official stocks of the virus, in the US
and Russia, are well guarded. And it鈥檚 just possible that there might never have
been a leak from anyone connected with smallpox military research in either
country.
If there has, though, we could be in trouble. Most of us have no immunity to
smallpox, and the history of European colonisation of the Americas shows that
you don鈥檛 need missiles or planes to deliver a devastating attack when your
targets are so vulnerable. A few suicide terrorists prepared to infect
themselves in the name of their cause might be all it takes.