THE Sahara is shrinking. Its long southern edge is turning green as farm yields soar and water tables rise (see 鈥淎fricans go back to the land as plants reclaim the desert鈥�). If this seems scarcely credible it is because it flies in the face of one of the most enduring environmental beliefs of our time 鈥� namely, that Africa鈥檚 deserts are spreading relentlessly thanks to cycles of drought, over-farming and overgrazing. But it just isn鈥檛 so. Even as drought looms in southern Africa, the larger arid area north of the equator is blooming 鈥� as it has been for the past decade and more.
Of course, bad farming and drought can make deserts grow, with devastating consequences. The 鈥渄ust bowl鈥� that formed in the American Great Plains in the 1930s is ample testimony to that. And African deserts did advance during the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. But, as satellite images from the 1990s make clear, they retreated again during years of higher rainfall.
Yet the myth of irreversible, long-term African desertification persists. Partly, because it has deep roots: Victorian missionary David Livingstone was among the first to raise the alarm, a century and a half ago. Partly, because our desire to make sense of a confusing world often results in unreasoned extrapolation from the local to the global and from the short-term to the long-term. And partly because the notion of advancing dunes has become too important for careers and reputations to be cast aside lightly.
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The UN Environment Programme remains one of the worst culprits. At the World Summit, the Nairobi-based agency once again claimed, in the face of satellite evidence, that desert is consuming almost half of Africa. Good intentions are no doubt at work. The Sahel nations are among the poorest on the planet. But their farmers don鈥檛 need to be fed environmental myths. They need support for their often successful efforts to keep soil and water on their fragile lands. They need proper prices for their produce. And they need to know that the next time drought hits, they will be supported until the rains return.