鈥淭HEY hate us,鈥� blared the headline in USA Today in late January 2002. The story underneath reported an opinion poll among Arabs and Muslims abroad that found significantly negative feelings towards the US. The headline reflected a common perception among Americans at the time, one that has been voiced regularly since the attacks on the World Trade Center a year and a half ago. But the real picture is far more complicated.
Over the past year I have conducted two extensive opinion polls of my own throughout the Middle East about people鈥檚 attitudes to the US in particular. The first, carried out in March and April 2002, covered Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, and the three Muslim non-Arab countries Iran, Pakistan and Indonesia. We found on the one hand that adults in these countries held favourable views of US science and technology, freedom and democracy, colleges and universities, film and television, and American-made products. On the other hand, with the slightest exception of Kuwait, they held extremely negative views on American policy towards Arab nations in general and Palestine in particular.
One of the most striking findings of the poll was that in every country, the youngest adults 鈥� those aged between 18 and 29 鈥� were the most enthusiastic about American life and culture. The same was true for those Arabs and Muslims who had access to the Internet and satellite television 鈥� and the more exposed they were to modern technology, the more they favoured American life and values. The conclusion was inescapable: it should have been possible to reach this generation of young Arabs and Muslims before radical anti-American forces reached them and closed their minds for good.
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But that was a year ago. In the first two weeks of March 2003 we conducted a second poll, commissioned by Shibley Telhami of the University of Maryland, in six Middle Eastern countries. It is remarkable how much things have changed in such a short time. Now, 95 per cent of Saudis, 91 per cent of Moroccans, 86 per cent of the Arabs in the Emirates, 80 per cent of Jordanians, 79 per cent of Egyptians and 59 per cent of Lebanese hold unfavourable views of the US. While we didn鈥檛 ask the same questions in this poll as in the first and so cannot know precisely how these feelings are directed, it is clear that overall attitudes towards the US have deteriorated dramatically.
These attitudes are shaped strongly by recent US policy in the Middle East. Huge majorities believe that the war in Iraq will bring less peace, not more, to the region. In Saudi Arabia 91 per cent predicted less peace, compared with 5 per cent who predicted more peace; in Morocco it was 89 per cent to 1 per cent. Huge majorities also believe that the war in Iraq will bring more terrorism, not less: 96 per cent in Saudi Arabia, 87 per cent in Morocco, 81 per cent in Lebanon. And despite President George Bush鈥檚 claims to the contrary, most people in all six countries think the war will damage prospects for democracy in the Middle East and a resolution to the Palestine-Israel conflict. Huge majorities opposed the possibility of war with Iraq, whether or not the US received support from the UN, even though most in Egypt, the UAE and Morocco felt that the Iraqi governments should 鈥渇ully comply with the UN weapons inspectors鈥�.
When asked why they thought the US was pursuing war with Iraq, an overwhelming majority of respondents had the same reply: oil. The second most cited reason was US support for Israel, with 鈥淯S imperialism鈥� also often given. The Bush administration can argue until it is blue in the face that its aim is 鈥渓iberation for the Iraqi people鈥�, but the perception among people in the Middle East is quite different.
This is important. On top of the political and diplomatic implications, our new poll reveals a significant decline in interest in American-made products. For example, where opinion was positive a year ago, today 84 per cent of Saudis say they are unlikely now to buy an American automobile. Several leading American companies, including McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble and Coca-Cola, are already suffering a dip in sales in the Arab world. Successful boycotts of American products have been mounted in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. As our opinion poll demonstrates, these boycotts are operating in an atmosphere that welcomes such efforts.
It is breathtaking how much goodwill in the Middle East has been lost in just a few months. Last year, 鈥渢hey鈥� didn鈥檛 love the US, yet neither did they hate us. Today, there is deep distrust of the American government鈥檚 motives, and for the act of war itself. It is clear that many Arabs have very little time for Saddam Hussein, but having experienced a series of humiliations and betrayals by the West they are not easily cowed by brute force. It appears that the war in Iraq is fostering a new sense of betrayal and opening up new wounds that will take a lot longer than the military campaign in Iraq to heal.
What a difference a year can make.