杏吧原创

Uncertain Science鈥�Uncertain World by Henry Pollack, Cambridge University Press, 拢18.95, ISBN 0521781884 Reviewed by Mike Holderness

SCIENCE and the law understand the word 鈥渢rue鈥� quite differently. A scientist might say 鈥渨e tried really hard to disprove this, and failed鈥�: uncertainty is built in. English juries are instructed to do nothing unless 鈥測ou are certain so that you are sure鈥�. The truth is whatever they decide. And things such as global climate change force scientists to address policy makers 鈥� who are at heart lawyers 鈥� through a flock of journalists.

Henry Pollack is a professor of geophysics at the University of Michigan and has modelled past climate using temperatures in boreholes 鈥� important for validating climate-change models. So, from the centre of the argument, he鈥檚 decided to bridge the gap about uncertainty. The result is a primer in very basic thinking about probability. It should be compulsory reading for journalists 鈥� who wouldn鈥檛 necessarily get to the end voluntarily.

But Pollack also wants to encourage scientists to communicate effectively. To convict carbon dioxide of climate change, you need to understand why certainty feels good (hint: Hollywood). It鈥檚 a shame Pollack didn鈥檛 find a way to become reversibly non-numerate.