AS THE subway froze and the ice cream in the freezers melted, New Yorkers last week experienced first-hand just how precariously dependent modern cities are on electricity, and just how fragile is the network of generators and power lines that feed this dependence in the world鈥檚 largest economy (see 鈥淧reventing blackouts will cost billions鈥�).
A report by the US National Research Council last year concluded the grid鈥檚 design left it vulnerable to 鈥渢he simultaneous failure of multiple pieces of equipment from either natural causes (e.g. hurricanes) or deliberate acts of sabotage鈥�. Yet the same report praised the same design for providing 鈥渟olid protection against natural threats such as lightning and falling trees鈥�, the 鈥渦nexpected failure鈥� of any single generator or transmission line, and even the 鈥渟imultaneous loss of multiple pieces of equipment鈥�. This analysis now looks naively optimistic. There were no hurricanes last week and no credible evidence has yet emerged of acts of sabotage. The blackout did not even coincide with a sudden surge in consumption. It happened on an ordinary summer afternoon amid hot but not exceptional weather.
The underlying reason for this vulnerability is that the grid now routinely operates close to capacity. This is not just because demand has been steadily rising. Much of the increase in transmission load in recent years stems not from an increase in power consumed, but from the amount being moved long distances as a result of market deregulation. The grid was never designed to handle that traffic.
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So what is the solution? In the short term, it will probably be necessary to build more power lines. But boosting the grid鈥檚 capacity in this way is like building more roads: it is often unpopular and risks encouraging the bad habits that created the overload in the first place.
The truth is that the North American grid is too centralised and rigid, and that energy is being shipped farther than is sensible. What is needed is smaller power stations built closer to where electricity is used, smart technologies that enable energy suppliers to limit demand at times of peak load, and in the long run perhaps more radical innovations such as hydrogen cells in homes and businesses that can be used to store and release energy at the point of use.
Some energy campaigners are even saying that power grids need to become more like the internet: decentralised systems in which those who use electricity can also generate it and in which packets of power are swapped between communities and even individuals like music files. Such thinking may ultimately prove unrealistic. The physical reality of distributing electric power is very different from trading bits over the internet. But the idea throws an urgently needed spotlight on the inadequacies of the present grid. As such it should at least inform any response to last week鈥檚 blackout.