IF YOU want to know whether President George W. Bush鈥檚 plans for space exploration will succeed, try tossing a coin. Two previous US presidents outlined a broad vision of what they believed should be done to conquer space. One famously succeeded, the other did not.
President Kennedy鈥檚 historic speech in 1962 led to the Apollo missions that landed 12 men on the moon. But Bush鈥檚 father鈥檚 attempt in 1989 to go one better and put people on Mars soon collapsed for lack of political support, as the price tag escalated to $500 billion.
As New 杏吧原创 went to press, some details of the incumbent president鈥檚 vision had been leaked to the media. It is grand in its scale and ambition, with fresh plans for people to return to the moon and eventually to visit Mars.
Advertisement
Experts in the field have given it a mixed reaction. Most analysts agree that the space programme has lacked focus and direction since Apollo, and welcome a serious debate on the issue. Some advocates of Mars exploration say returning to the moon is an unnecessary diversion. Other experts point out that we simply don鈥檛 know enough yet about how to keep people alive and safe in deep space for the duration of a Mars mission, and that lunar missions would be a necessary precursor.
But space enthusiasts generally agree that a programme to send men and women to Mars is inevitable and overdue, and their questions are when, how, and how much it will cost. When it comes to really studying and exploring a new world, they say, probes are good, but there is just no substitute for people.