IT IS not unknown for Hollywood to exaggerate in its quest for box office success. But for climate scientists, the film The Day After Tomorrow, which opens next month, is a step too far. It portrays New York City frozen solid after the warm ocean current called the Gulf Stream shuts down.
It is a respectable idea that as global warming melts Arctic ice, the North Atlantic will become less salty and two gigantic 鈥減umps鈥� could shut down. These pumps rely on dense, salty water sinking in the far north of the Atlantic to draw warm surface waters northwards. But in this week鈥檚 Science, Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria, Canada, pooh-poohs the film鈥檚 storyline. After surveying existing research, he concludes that 鈥渋t is safe to say that global warming will not lead to the onset of a new ice age鈥�.
Hollywood is not alone in predicting disaster. In February, a report to the US Department of Defense forecast that a shutdown of the Gulf Stream could plunge the US into a deep freeze within 15 years. But in a letter also in this week鈥檚 Science, Wallace Broecker of Columbia University, New York, condemns this forecast as exaggerated.
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What to make of all this? Weaver told New 杏吧原创 he is eager to see the film 鈥� but only for its entertainment value. He also noted that the film鈥檚 $120 million budget would fund his research team for life, 10 times over. That might finally tell us what global warming will do to the North Atlantic.