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Mad or unlucky?

A SECOND cow in the US has tested positive for BSE, just in time for Fourth of July barbecues. A programme to test more than 200,000 cattle, launched in June, has so far examined 7000 animals. Finding a positive so quickly could just be bad luck, or it could indicate a significant prevalence of BSE in the US herds.

The Department of Agriculture (USDA) says the test result is 鈥渋nconclusive鈥 until it has been confirmed by a slower, more reliable test, and that it is 鈥渉ighly likely鈥 the animal did not have BSE. But the California firm BioRad, which made the test, says its ultimate false positive rate after confirmatory tests is only 1 in 300,000. That means the test result is only likely to be wrong if the US鈥檚 rate of BSE infection is substantially lower than the test鈥檚 false positive rate.

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