Is the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) falling apart? On current evidence, its prospects seem bleak.
Analysts have long considered the NPT as the world鈥檚 best chance of preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. But unrest is growing among the 188 signatories over attempts by rogue nations to acquire nuclear know-how and over nuclear nations鈥� refusal to disarm. With the NPT due for review next year, this week鈥檚 allegations that the US and UK are conspiring to break the agreement could not have come at a worse time.
The NPT came into force in 1970 with the aim of preventing both proliferation and stockpiling of nuclear warheads. The deal was straightforward in principle. Nations without nuclear weapons promised not to acquire them, while those with nuclear weapons promised to negotiate them away.
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In practice, countries on both sides of the nuclear divide have flouted the agreement. Last year, Libya admitted pursuing an illicit weapons programme while signed up to the treaty. The US has accused Iran of making highly enriched uranium for bombs. Iran denies the charge. And in 2003 North Korea became the first and only country to pull out of the NPT, claiming to have developed nuclear weapons.
Three other countries that are not parties to the NPT have also acquired nuclear weapons: Israel, India and Pakistan. At the same time, non-weapons states accuse long-standing nuclear weapons states, including the US, Russia and the UK, of breaching Article 6 of the NPT. This commits those with weapons to 鈥減ursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to鈥uclear disarmament鈥�.
This commitment was specifically backed by US president Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, and other nations have often supported it in principle. It was reinforced at the last review of the NPT in 2000, when countries made an 鈥渦nequivocal undertaking鈥� to eliminate their nuclear arsenals.
However, the US still has 10,600 nuclear bombs, Russia 18,000 and the UK 200 鈥� and they all want to hang onto them. Add in France, China and others, and the world tally is about 29,800 nuclear warheads, a relatively small drop from 38,000 in 1968.
In New York last month at a preparatory conference for the 2005 NPT review, John Bolton, Bush鈥檚 under-secretary of state for arms control, repeatedly blocked any reminders of the promise to disarm. This infuriated many non-nuclear weapons states, causing the conference to end in disarray, and delegates unable to agree even an agenda. The prospects for next year鈥檚 review look poor as a result.