What is the Kyoto protocol?
It鈥檚 an add-on to a 1992 UN treaty, finalised in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. The protocol is supposed to help tackle climate change by limiting countries鈥� greenhouse-gas emissions. But it has never come into force.
Why not?
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Although it has been ratified by 125 countries so far, it comes into force only when the 1990 emissions of all its backers add up to 55 per cent of the total 1990 emissions by industrialised countries. Russia鈥檚 support would finally swing it. Last week the Russian cabinet said it would submit the treaty to parliament for final approval.
How big are the cuts it promises?
With Russia, the 30 industrialised countries backing the protocol would have to collectively cut their output of six greenhouse gases to 4.8 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012.
Will these targets be met?
Possibly, though not always because countries have made significant efforts. Russia鈥檚 economic woes mean its emissions have already fallen way below 1990 levels, for instance. Countries can also meet targets by trading 鈥減ollution credits鈥�.
And that means global emissions should start to fall?
That鈥檚 unlikely. The world鈥檚 biggest polluter, the US, refuses to back Kyoto, along with Australia, while developing nations including China and India were never required to make cuts.
What happens if countries don鈥檛 meet their targets?
They have to spell out how they will mend their ways and will face stricter targets in the next 鈥渃ompliance period鈥�. But they could keep making comforting noises until the protocol expires in 2012.
So what difference will Kyoto make?
On it鈥檚 own, not much. If countries鈥� emissions start rising again after 2012, it will prevent less than 0.1 掳C of the warming expected by 2050.