THIS year will mark a pivotal moment in human history. The UN predicts that what is known as the 鈥済lobal crude death rate鈥� will start rising for the first time since the dawn of civilisation some 10,000 years ago.
On the face of it that looks like bad news. Crude death rate measures the number of people per 1000 who die in a year. The figure has been falling steadily, from about 40 in pre-agricultural societies to around 8.7 today. But this year it will start rising again. So what awful global catastrophe is about to reverse 100 centuries of progress?
Fortunately, there is no imminent disaster. The upturn has nothing to do with war, famine or pestilence, but merely reflects the fact that the world鈥檚 human population is ageing on a global scale, thanks to improved healthcare.
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Crude death rate can be tricky to interpret. In many developing countries it is relatively high 鈥� Mozambique鈥檚 is about 28, for example. But as countries modernise and life expectancy rockets, crude death rate drops rapidly. Then, as millions of people whose lives were saved as infants reach old age and start dying in droves, the crude death rate rises again. This transition has already occurred in many developed countries and is now set to happen on a global scale.
There is another reason to see the change in a positive light: it marks the beginning of the end of population growth. The crude death rate will eventually overtake the crude birth rate, marking the high-water mark of world population. The UN expects this to happen in 2075, with both rates standing at 11.4 and the world population at 9.22 billion. Crude death rate will then carry on rising and peak at 12.3 in 2115. Some people alive today could witness that transition, too.
