NOT all Australia鈥檚 endangered species are innocent and furry. The latest to join the at-risk list is self-harming, often smelly, sometimes antisocial 鈥� and well on the way to extinction by 2030.
Mike Daube of Curtin University of Technology in Western Australia and his team analysed data on cigarette smoking from the start of the Australian government鈥檚 big anti-smoking push, in 1983, until 2004. They found that last year only 17.4 per cent of Australians smoked every day, the lowest rate for any country in the OECD 鈥� the club of the 30 leading market-economy democracies. And that was down from 40 per cent of Australian men and 32 per cent of women smoking every day 21 years earlier, the researchers say.
鈥淭here will be no women smokers in 2029, and the last man will light up a year later鈥�
Advertisement
Extrapolate that rate of decline into the future and there will be no Australian women smokers in 2029, and the last man will light up a year later. 鈥淎nd if anything, I think our estimates are cautious,鈥� Daube says.
鈥淚 really think it鈥檚 achievable,鈥� Daube adds, citing the low rate of smoking among American doctors as an example of a comparable shift. The US has a greater proportion of smokers than Australia, but only 1.5 per cent of its doctors smoke. 鈥淚鈥檓 not aware of any physiological differences between doctors and the rest of us,鈥� he says.
Tough new regulations due to come into force in Australia in the next few years could bring forward the extinction date, Daube thinks. Graphic warnings on cigarette packs will be introduced in 2006, followed by a nationwide ban on smoking in pubs in 2007.
