If someone could tell you when you were going to die, would you want to know? It鈥檚 no longer such a hypothetical question now that a 鈥渄eath index鈥� can predict with 80 per cent accuracy whether or not someone over 50 is likely to die within four years.
Sei Lee, a geriatric specialist at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center, California, designed a 12-question form based on data from nearly 20,000 people aged 50 and over, who took part in the US-wide Health and Retirement Survey between 1998 and 2002. Lee鈥檚 team looked at who had died by the end of 2002, and calculated which variables might predict their death.
They compiled a 鈥渄eath index鈥� based on three classes of questions covering: gender and age; illnesses, such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease; and the ability to perform everyday activities, such as dressing and shopping. A score of 0 means there is a less than 1 per cent chance of death in the next four years. A score of 14 or over indicates a 65 per cent chance of dying. The study appears this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association (vol 295, p 801).
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Lorna Layward of London-based charity Help the Aged says the index could be a vital tool for improving the health of older people, but worries that those judged likely to die soon might be refused vital treatment. 鈥淭his is direct ageism and will only increase already growing health inequalities. It suggests that if you haven鈥檛 got long left to live, then you are fit only for the scrap heap.鈥�
