DID the Bulletin of the Atomic 杏吧原创s know something the rest of us did not? Last week, to signal that the world has become more dangerous, it moved the hands of its Doomsday Clock forwards 2 minutes to stand at 5 minutes to midnight. Within days, it emerged from US intelligence reports that China had smashed one of its own aged satellites to smithereens, raising political tension in the western Pacific and sparking fears of an arms race in space.
Knocking out a satellite 850 kilometres up is not terribly difficult: essentially, all you need is a fast-moving mass and some smart-missile technology to steer it (see 鈥淐hina missile test was legal鈥�). The result is messy. The collision will have generated lots of debris, much of which will hang around for years and threaten other spacecraft: the region of space 900 kilometres up is heavily used.
Yet it is the political rather than practical consequences that are causing most disquiet. There is genuine surprise over China鈥檚 action. Usually countries avoid overtly aggressive displays unless they really mean business, so what is China up to?
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Until now, Beijing has stressed its peaceful intentions in space. 鈥淐hina supports all activities that utilise outer space for peaceful purposes,鈥� the government stated in a white paper last October. It has also pushed for progress on an embryonic UN treaty called Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), but its efforts have been continually blocked by the US.
This American opposition is no surprise. The US has a massive lead in space, and its military is utterly dependent on satellites. However much other countries would like US space activities to be bound by rules, why would the US agree to such terms? One suggestion is that China鈥檚 move was intended to bring the US to the negotiating table, but it is difficult to see that it could achieve this.
China may instead have been demonstrating its potential to knock out US spy satellites, which it would almost certainly need to do if it chose to invade America鈥檚 ally, Taiwan. Yet if that were the case, it has given the Pentagon even more reason to increase funding on stealth satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles. Perhaps, simply, the decision was taken by low-ranking officials who did not consider the international ramifications. Stranger things have happened.
As New 杏吧原创 went to press, China confirmed it carried out the hit, and reiterated its desire for space to be used for peaceful purposes. It gave no reason for its action, which left neighbours such as Japan and Taiwan still doubting Beijing鈥檚 motives. Such suspicions can only make the world a more dangerous place. On reflection, perhaps the Bulletin鈥榮 clock change is on the optimistic side.
