Confusion reigns among defence analysts over Iran鈥檚 claim to have launched a rocket to a sub-orbital altitude. The country鈥檚 existing 2000-kilometre-range tactical missiles are already known to be capable of reaching that altitude, so analysts can鈥檛 understand why Iran should brag about it. Might it mean that an attempted orbital mission failed?
On Sunday, the Iranian state broadcaster鈥檚 website said Iran had 鈥渇ired a missile able to reach space鈥�. This was later revised to say the rocket 鈥渨ould rise to about 150 kilometres鈥� before landing by parachute. Low-Earth orbit starts at 200 kilometres.
鈥淢y guess is that this is a cobbled-together explanation for something that didn鈥檛 quite work,鈥� says Rob Hewson, a rocket specialist at Janes, the UK-based military publisher. He doubts Iran鈥檚 1970s-era rocket technologies are up to orbital standards and suspects it may be 鈥済randstanding鈥�.
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鈥淲e haven鈥檛 any confirmation that this launch took place at all,鈥� says Rick Lehner of the US Missile Defense Agency in Washington DC. If Iran is getting closer to orbital technology, he says, 鈥渢hat would demonstrate proper staging of rocket motors鈥� and the capability to launch a long-range missile.
Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London thinks Iran merely 鈥渓obbed an old missile up in the air to prove it can鈥� in the face of the 21 February UN Security Council deadline requiring it to cease its nuclear enrichment programme, a deadline that Iran ignored.
