Here鈥檚 the species forecast, issued on World Biodiversity Day, 22 May: a gloomy outlook for many species in the face of climate change.
Released at the same time, the MONARCH report by the UK鈥檚 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs examined the fate of 32 species native to the UK and Ireland up to the year 2080. Seven years in the making, the report finds that a quarter of the species, including almost everything now restricted to the cooler parts of the UK, will be squeezed out as these regions warm, says Pam Berry at the University of Oxford, who co-authored the report.
Fifteen species seem to fare better, with an increase in areas with a suitable climate, and six species, including the stag beetle (pictured), will be forced northwards with rising temperatures.
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Even these mixed results may paint an overly rosy picture. Although temperatures in these new regions may suit these species, the habitats may not be hospitable for them, says Berry, who is working on a similar Europe-wide report. It may also be impossible for species to relocate to new areas, says Hilary Allison of the Woodland Trust. 鈥淎ll these studies say the same thing,鈥� Berry says. 鈥淲e need to both cut greenhouse gas emissions and help species adapt to climate change in the here and now.鈥�
At the same time the first assessment of all European mammals, carried out by the World Conservation Union, shows that nearly 1 in 6 mammal species is now threatened with extinction.
