Texans, hold onto your hats: it鈥檚 going to be a bumpy ride.
According to of Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, and colleagues the weather in southern California, western Texas and northern Mexico is going to become increasingly unpredictable whatever we do. This is true in both a best-case scenario in which new technology curbs future emissions, and if the worst happens and population growth fuels a doubling in carbon dioxide levels (see maps).
Residents in these areas will see pronounced fluctuations in temperature and rainfall from year to year 鈥� changes that will become harder to predict (Geophysical Research Letters, ). 鈥淭he concept of a 鈥榥ormal year鈥� might disappear,鈥� says co-author Jeremy Pal of the Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles.
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Diffenbaugh combined a number of global and local climate models to create the maps of climate change 鈥渉otspots鈥� in the US. As well as looking at the two different scenarios, he also looked at differing timescales. 鈥淭he pattern is consistent both in the near term and the long term,鈥� says Diffenbaugh. He cautions that other areas may still be at risk from events not included in the model. For example, many think south-eastern states may soon have more intense hurricanes.
鈥淭his is a good example of a top-down approach; it summarises the areas we need to focus on,鈥� says climatologist of the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
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