Iran is ready to enter space, according to a report in Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine.
The report quotes Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iran鈥檚 National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, as saying that a space launcher has been assembled and 鈥渨ill lift off soon鈥�, carrying an Iranian satellite.
The launch vehicle is thought to be based on Iran鈥檚 Shahab-3 Missile, which has a range of 1300 to 1600 kilometres (800 to 1000 miles). The fear is that it might be intended to test technology for a long-range ballistic missile.
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鈥淭his has been anticipated for some time 鈥� the Iranians have been saying they will launch satellites鈥� says Doug Richardson, editor of Jane鈥檚 Missiles and Rockets.
Their first aim might be reconnaissance. 鈥淭hey are concerned about what capabilities Israel has, and the only way they can find out is by observing from space,鈥� says Bhupendra Jasani of King鈥檚 College in London, UK, an expert in the military applications of space. 鈥淐learly they can鈥檛 fly aircraft, that would be a violation of airspace, and they would be shot down very quickly.鈥�
鈥淓ventually if they do seriously develop any kind of nuclear capability, then they would want satellites to provide targeting information,鈥� says Jasani. 鈥淎nd once they have developed a vehicle to launch satellites, then it鈥檚 not a big step to put a nuclear warhead on.鈥�
Stage by stage
According to the Aviation Week report, the satellite launch vehicle might then be converted into an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a range of about 4000 kilometres (2500 miles).
If a launcher can put a satellite into orbit then it can also deliver a payload of the same mass anywhere on Earth. However, a first-generation nuclear warhead 鈥� which Iran is not yet thought to be capable of producing 鈥� is likely to be heavier than a small reconnaissance satellite, limiting the missile鈥檚 range.
The launch technology might take some time to perfect. The Shahab has probably been modified by adding more rocket stages to get a payload up to orbital speed.
鈥淚t is not as easy to cobble these things together as people think,鈥� says Richardson. In the 1960s he worked on the unsuccessful ELDO project, a European launcher based on the British ICMB Blue Streak, with a French second stage and a German third stage.
More recently, in 1998, North Korea tried to launch a satellite with their Taepodong missile as a first stage 鈥淚t is about the same size as the Iranian Shahab. They added a Scud missile as the second stage and a solid propellant rocket as the third,鈥� says Richardson. 鈥淚t failed 鈥� perhaps not surprisingly.鈥� North Korea鈥檚 latest missile tests in 2006 ended in the failure of its intercontinental missile, Taepodong-2 (see North Korea resumes missile testing).
Obvious concerns
Nonetheless, experts expect that Iran鈥檚 technical difficulties will be overcome eventually. The US Defense Intelligence Agency thinks that Iran may be capable of developing an ICBM with a range of more than 4000 kilometres by 2015, says Aviation Week.
Given Iran鈥檚 nuclear programme, and despite denials that the country is developing warheads, the concerns are obvious, say observers.
鈥淲hat worries me,鈥� says Jasani, 鈥渋s that we have developed a lot of international control mechanisms such as the missile technology control regime and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but none of them seem to have worked.鈥�
鈥淪hould we be considering other ways of doing things, to reduce the importance of nuclear weapons? Iran feels threatened by Israel鈥檚 nuclear weapons, and they turn to deterrence. We need to address the deterrent concept 鈥� is it still viable?鈥� Jasani asks.
