An unprecedented US initiative aimed at opening up a new direction in climate change negotiations and for the first time mentioning the possibility of committing to 鈥渢argets鈥� is being dismissed by experts as little more than a stalling tactic designed to provide cover for President George W. Bush during his final months in power.
Plans for an 鈥淚nternational Climate Change Framework鈥� were unveiled by the president in a speech delivered on 31 May to a leadership organisation in Washington, DC.
In it, Bush said he would convene a series of meetings of the world鈥檚 major emitters in an attempt to set long- and mid-term goals to reduce greenhouse gasses.
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Compared to previous Bush announcements on climate change, which have tended to focus on the development of new low-carbon technologies, the statement was closer in tone to the position held by countries like the UK and Germany, which have been pushing for tough and mandatory cuts in emissions.
Disruptive tactic?
But climate change policy experts say that beyond the use of new language, the statement contains nothing to suggest that the US administration is altering its resistance to international agreements like the Kyoto protocol.
They point out that the framework calls only for individual countries to make their own plans. In comments made after Bush鈥檚 speech, White House aides confirmed that the administration was still opposed to the international targets that underlie Kyoto and which many experts see as central to any new agreement.
Rather than signal a change in position, the announcement is being interpreted as a disruptive tactic. It has the potential to upstage plans, promoted by Germany, to reach an agreement on climate change at next week鈥檚 G8 meeting.
It also takes some pressure off Bush until his term of office expires in November 2008 鈥� the proposed framework is due to be completed the following month.
鈥淭he Bush administration has done everything it can to avoid discussion of emissions commitments,鈥� says Eliot Diringer of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change in Washington, DC. 鈥淭his helps keep the issue off the table until he leaves.鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 the same programme,鈥� added a Democratic Senate staffer, who asked not to be named. 鈥淲ithout teeth, without targets. It just another excuse for delay.鈥�
Consensus essential
During questioning by reporters, Jim Connaughton, senior environmental advisor to the president, denied such accusations. He argued that the system of emissions caps and trading used in Europe was not performing well, and that individual nations should be allowed to pursue whatever emissions levels they felt appropriate.
But many climate policy experts, including Diringer, say that individual countries will not act unless they are part of a broader agreement that also required their economic rivals to make cuts.
Rather than pay too much attention to the current framework, advocates of tough emissions cuts are placing their hopes on the candidates for the next president, most of whom are more open than Bush to the idea of international agreements. Until November 2008, they do not expect much to change.
鈥淚t鈥檚 clear that there will be no US involvement in a post-Kyoto agreement until a new president comes in,鈥� says Kevin Vranes, a climate policy expert at the University of Colorado at Boulder, US.
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