As the scale of the disaster in Burma caused by Cyclone Nargis starts to emerge, relief agencies and rich countries are lining up to provide emergency aid. But with agencies already hit hard by soaring food prices, and Burma鈥檚 own rice crop devastated, it is not clear where the relief will come from.
Nargis hit Burma on Saturday, bringing with it a reported oceanic storm surge more than 3 metres high, which is said to have destroyed some low-lying towns. The storm wreaked havoc throughout the heavily populated delta of the Irrawaddy River in the south, and hit the country鈥檚 largest city, Rangoon.
Burma鈥檚 military dictatorship today revised its earlier estimate of several hundred killed and admitted that at least 22,000 are dead 鈥� with thousands still missing. Many more people have been made homeless by the disaster.
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鈥淲e have a major humanitarian catastrophe in our hands,鈥� Chris Kaye, head of the UN鈥檚 in Burma, told journalists. 鈥淭he numbers of people in need are still to be determined, but I鈥檓 sure we are talking hundreds and thousands.鈥�
Cash shortfall
But the WFP, the world鈥檚 largest provider of food aid, is already struggling under huge rises in basic food prices over the past few months, including rice prices that have trebled since December.
The WFP depends entirely on voluntary donations. 鈥淟ast year we estimated we would need $3.1 billion for 2008, but in March we told our donors we would be $500 million short,鈥� Caroline Hurford at the WFP headquarters in Rome, told New 杏吧原创. 鈥淣ow, with continued price rises, that鈥檚 going to be $755 million.鈥�
That figure did not count aid to Burma. And donors have so far pledged only a quarter of the $3.1 billion to the WFP, says Hurford. Despite that, 鈥渟ixteen assessment teams are already on the ground and food is being distributed,鈥� she says.
But people are likely to need assistance for months, and even if WFP and other aid agencies get enough money to keep buying food, there may be little to buy. Several major rice producers, including India, Vietnam and China, have banned or limited rice exports this year to protect their own supplies.
Investing in farmers
Burma was an exception. It was expected to export half a million tons of rice, including to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, which will not produce enough themselves this year 鈥� Bangladesh鈥檚 shortfall is due to damage from another cyclone last November. Now much of Burma鈥檚 rice crop has been devastated.
India has waived its export ban for the WFP, and will sell its rice for export. But normally the Irrawaddy Delta is where the agency gets food for development programmes in Burma鈥檚 impoverished north. Now the delta region itself will also need aid.
Several rich countries have pledged extra funds for global food aid. On 1 May, US president George W Bush asked the US Congress to approve an additional $770 million. 鈥淏ut we are not sure how much of that is going to us,鈥� says Hurford.
On Monday Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University in New York, US, a leading adviser on development economics, that countries should send food aid to countries hit hard by the current price increases only as a short-term measure, and should instead invest in helping them grow their own food.
The WFP tries to buy most of its food aid in poor countries precisely to support farmers, says Hurley.
