Russia will not ratify the Kyoto protocol to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases 鈥渋n its present form鈥�, a Russian presidential adviser announced on Tuesday.
鈥淚n its current form, the Kyoto protocol places significant limitations on the economic growth of Russia,鈥� said Andrei Illarionov, chief adviser on economic issues to Vladimir Putin.
鈥淚n its present form, this protocol cannot be ratified,鈥� he said at a major climate change conference in Milan, Italy.
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If Russia鈥檚 stand is final, the protocol would almost certainly be dead. The 1997 pact, which aims to slow climate change due to global warming, can come into force only if ratified by 55 developed countries which accounted for at least 55 per cent of global emissions in 1990.
Current ratifications cover 44 per cent of emissions, meaning Russia鈥檚 17 per cent would bring the protocol into force. The country鈥檚 assent is particularly critical because the world鈥檚 biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, the US, has already rejected the treaty.
鈥淓ver-tightening straitjacket鈥�
In a newspaper article timed to coincide with the conference, the protocol was described as 鈥渁n unrealistic and ever-tightening regulatory straitjacket鈥� by Paula Dobriansky, US undersecretary of state for global affairs. She argued that harnessing 鈥渂reakthrough energy technologies鈥�, rather than curtailing energy consumption, will cut emissions while still allowing economic growth in the US.
Environmental groups claim Illarionov鈥檚 statement is merely pre-election bluster, ahead of a parliamentary poll on Sunday. Alexey Kokorin, the head of WWF鈥檚 Climate Change program in Russia, said: 鈥淚llarionov does not speak for the President or the Russian Government.鈥�
Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace International Climate Campaigner, added: 鈥淲hile Illarionov鈥檚 opinion will sound like music to the ears of the US administration, it鈥檚 far too early to be reading the funeral notice of the Kyoto Protocol.鈥� The green groups expect Russia will ratify Kyoto after the Presidential election in March 2004.
Russia had originally signalled its intention to ratify the pact, but has wavered recently. This indecision has been seen by some observers as brinkmanship by a nation looking for a deal which will not to hinder its future economic growth and will protect lucrative oil exports.
Missed targets
The Kyoto protocol suffered a further blow on Tuesday with a new report indicating that the European Union, an enthusiastic supporter of the protocol, is set to miss its Kyoto emission targets.
鈥淭he main reason is a runaway increase in emissions from transport, especially road transport,鈥� says the European Environment Agency (EEA) document.
Under the protocol, the current 15 nations of the EU must cut their overall emissions of greenhouse gases to eight per cent below their 1990 levels by 2008 to 2012.
By 2001, the EU had cut its emissions to 2.3 per cent below 1990 levels. However, the EEA now predicts that existing policies will mean the EU鈥檚 total emissions by 2010 are only 0.5 per cent below 1990 levels.
The transport sector is responsible for one-fifth of the EU鈥檚 greenhouse gas emissions and are projected to rise by to one-third above 1990 levels by 2010. The report also warns that this estimate does not include 鈥渞apidly increasing emissions from international air travel, which is not covered by Kyoto鈥�.
The latest predictions are also more pessimistic because Germany 鈥� which produces a quarter of EU greenhouse gas emissions 鈥� now forecasts a much smaller reduction than it had previously.
