Any hope of a quick end to the foot and mouth epidemic currently devastating UK livestock was dashed on Friday when three groups of epidemiologists predicted it would last 鈥渕any months鈥�.
By June, there could be as many as 4100 outbreaks, say the Ministry of Agriculture鈥檚 own group of epidemiologists, led by John Wilesmith. This is eight times the 501 cases reported so far.
Two other groups, one led by Roy Anderson at Imperial College London and the other by Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, expect outbreaks to spread throughout the nation unless measures to stamp out the disease are stepped up.
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Already, 480,000 animals have been killed or earmarked for slaughter. This is 50,000 more than all the animals killed in Britain鈥檚 most recent large outbreak in 1967.
Ben Gill, president of the National Farmers Union, says that the bleak new predictions have alarmed farmers already at breaking point. 鈥淚t was quite a shock to members,鈥� he says.
Speedier end
But the epidemiologists have also recommended ways to bring a speedier end to the crisis.
Most important is reducing the time lapse between the reporting of the disease and the slaughter of the animals. 鈥淚f we can reduce it to 24 hours, the epidemic can be brought under control very effectively,鈥� says David King, the government鈥檚 chief scientific adviser.
Currently, the report-to-slaughter time can be several days. This gives more time for virus-rich blisters and sores to develop and burst on the hooves and mouths of infected animals, enabling the virus to spread to neighbouring livestock.
Nick Brown, the agriculture minister, says that the 24-hour target has already been reached in many areas, notably in one of the 鈥渉otspots鈥� in Devon. But the process was still taking too long in many key areas, particularly Cumbria where the epidemic originated.
Firewall strategy
The other key step, once a new outbreak has been identified, is to establish a 鈥渇irewall鈥� by killing all animals within three kilometres of the stricken farm. This would both purge the infection at source and box it in to prevent secondary spread.
This step has already been adopted in Cumbria. Whether it would be extended to all other outbreaks has yet to be decided by ministers. Roy Anderson, head of the Imperial team, believes adoption of this measure could cut the size of the epidemic by 80 per cent.
Adopting this 鈥渟corched earth鈥� approach would mean the sacrifice of more healthy animals than at present and would be deeply unpopular with farmers. 鈥淭he epidemiology shows that the more animals you kill, the quicker you exterminate the disease,鈥� says Brown.
Vaccination option
He said ministers are also considering very limited use of vaccines. One possible use is to 鈥渄ampen down鈥� areas where the virus is rife but slaughter has not yet begun. Vaccinated animals do not develop virus-producing sores.
The other possible use is as part of the 鈥渇irewall鈥� strategy to box-in infections, allowing more time for slaughtermen to reach the area. In both cases, all vaccinated animals would ultimately be slaughtered.
However, the preferred option remains to 鈥渟laughter-out鈥� the disease without using any vaccines. If all animals were vaccinated, farmers would lose exports worth 拢570 million in the two years it would take for Britain to recover its 鈥渄isease free鈥� status.
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