Development giants China and India 鈥渉old the world in balance鈥�, says a new report by a US environmental think tank.
鈥淭he choices these two countries make in the next few years will lead the world either towards growing ecological and political instability 鈥� or down a development path based on efficiency and better stewardship of resources,鈥� says a report from the Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC, US.
One in every two tonnes of cement poured today will be in China 鈥� such is the country鈥檚 breakneck pace of economic development. The country also uses one-quarter of all the world鈥檚 steel, eats one-third of the world鈥檚 rice, and is the world鈥檚 largest importer of tropical timber and second largest importer of oil.
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As well as using ever more resources, the two countries are also creating an increasing proportion of the world鈥檚 pollution. China, which gets two-thirds of its energy from coal, is now the second largest source of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, while India is fourth, says Worldwatch鈥檚 State of the World 2006 report.
Head count
The two countries argue that while they are high in the league tables of environmental damage, this is only because of their huge populations 鈥� their citizens, per head, cause only a fraction of the environmental damage of individual Europeans or North Americans.
Worldwatch agrees with this, estimating the worldwide 鈥渆cological footprint鈥� 鈥� the amount of resources needed to support each individual 鈥� of the average Chinese person at 1.6 hectares, the average Indian at 0.8 hectares. The average US citizen鈥檚 ecological footprint is estimated at a whopping 9.7 hectares.
Nonetheless, veteran US ecologist and China-watcher Lester Brown last week warned that if China鈥檚 economy continues to grow at the present rate, average Chinese incomes will reach current US levels by 2031. At that point 鈥淐hina would consume two-thirds of the world鈥檚 current grain harvest and twice the world鈥檚 current paper production鈥�.
Leapfrogging
However, the think tank warns against assuming that economic growth is an environmental problem only in poor countries. 鈥淩ecord-shattering consumption levels in the US and Europe鈥� are equally to blame, stresses Christopher Flavin, president of Worldwatch. In the past decade alone, the ecological footprint of the average American has grown by the same amount as the total footprint of a Chinese person today.
But Flavin says countries like China and India have the chance to develop in a more benign way than already industrialised nations. 鈥淸By] leapfrogging today鈥檚 industrial powers, they can become world leaders in sustainable energy and agriculture within a decade,鈥� he says.
This is not unrealistic. China recently announced plans for the world鈥檚 first 鈥渆co-city鈥� on marshes outside Shanghai. India has the world鈥檚 fourth largest wind-power industry and plans to generate one-quarter of its energy from renewables.
鈥淲e are resolved to change practice of polluting first and cleaning up later, and we are striving to build a resource-saving, environmentally friendly society,鈥� says Xie Zhenhua, the former director of China鈥檚 State Environmental Protection Administration, in a foreword to the report.
After writing the foreword, Xie was sacked in the aftermath of the highly publicised chemical spill on Songhua River in northern China last November.
