WE ARE on track for serious economic collapse that will dwarf our current troubles. That鈥檚 the conclusion of the real-world analysis of a controversial prediction made 30 years ago that economic growth cannot be sustained.
In 1972, the book Limits to Growth by a group called the Club of Rome predicted that exponential growth would eventually lead to economic and environmental collapse. The group used models that assessed the interaction of rising populations, pollution, industrial production, resource consumption and food production. Most economists rubbished the book, and governments have ignored its recommendations, but a growing band of experts is once again arguing that we need to reshape our economy to make it more sustainable (New 杏吧原创, 16 October 2008, p 40).
Now Graham Turner at the research organisation CSIRO in Australia has compared Limits to Growth鈥榮 forecast with data from the intervening years. He says changes in industrial production, food production and pollution are all in line with the Club of Rome鈥檚 predictions, which foresee decreasing resource availability and an escalating cost of extraction that eventually triggers a slowdown of industry 鈥� leading to economic collapse some time after 2020 ().
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鈥淔or the first 30 years of the model, the world has been tracking along an unsustainable trajectory,鈥� Turner concludes. of the University of Maryland says these results show that we 鈥渕ust get off the growth path of business as usual, and move to a steady state economy鈥�, stopping population growth, resource depletion, and pollution.
鈥淔or 30 years, the world has been tracking along an unsustainable trajectory鈥�
Turner is not suggesting that disaster is inevitable, and says his numbers show that a sustainable economy is attainable. 鈥淲e wouldn鈥檛 have to go back to the caves,鈥� he says.