Our technologically dependent society could be brought to its knees the next time Earth is walloped by an extreme solar outburst.
Intense outbursts of plasma from the sun, called coronal mass ejections, can create electromagnetic interference that plays havoc with technology. In 1989, one nasty blast knocked out the power grid in Quebec, Canada, for several hours. Future blasts could be much worse, according to a report by a US National Research Council committee led by Daniel Baker of the University of Colorado in Boulder, based on workshops held last year.
The most powerful solar outburst on record happened in 1859. Then, it merely disrupted telegraph communication. If it happened today, it could cause lasting damage to power grids, with knock-on effects on supplies of water, medicine and other necessities, the report says.
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Damaged transformers could be a particularly big problem. 鈥淚f a large number were taken out it could take quite a while to replace them,鈥� says Baker. 鈥淭here鈥檚 not a lot of stock鈥� and they have to be built to order.鈥�
Fortunately, there are ways to reduce the risk of catastrophe. Relatively cheap modifications could make transformer circuits up to 70 per cent less vulnerable to solar storm damage, the report says.
One small mercy is that some scientists argue the sun is likely to enter a decades-long quieter period soon, during which big outbursts would be less likely (New 杏吧原创, 10 January, p 11). However, this prediction is fraught with uncertainty.
