Emperor penguins are likely to be melted out of house and home by climate change, according to a new study.
Earlier work suggests that Antarctica鈥檚 penguins are already suffering from warming temperatures. Now a group of researchers have combined what is known about emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) ecology with forecasts from 10 leading climate change models to forecast the future of the species.
It doesn鈥檛 look good. The models predict that, unless fossil fuels are phased out, there is more than a one-in-three chance that 95% of the Ad茅lie Land colony of eastern Antarctica 鈥� the best studied emperor penguin colony 鈥� will be gone by 2100.
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Bad odds
In this worst case 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥� scenario, where we continue to emit greenhouse gases, the penguin population could be reduced to just a few hundred breeding pairs, down from 3000 today and 6000 in the 1970s.
, an ecologist at the in France, and an author of the study, says there is no reason to think the Ad茅lie Land penguins would be any worse affected than other colonies.
Weimerskirch鈥檚 colleague of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts, says the odds aren鈥檛 good. 鈥淚f I offered you an investment with a 40% chance of losing 95% of your money, would you take it?鈥� he says.
Vital ice
Penguins rely on floating sea ice to nest and feed. The way males incubate eggs, on tops of their feet, depends on having a level, smooth surface to shuffle over; and the krill they eat rely on small organisms that live on the underside of sea ice for their sustenance.
In the late 1970s, warmer temperatures brought a decline in sea ice and the Ad茅lie Land colony shrank by half. It has been more or less stable since, and has even grown slightly in recent years, which Weimerskirch says is probably due to a slight regional cooling in eastern Antarctica.
However, Antarctic temperatures are warming overall and 鈥渢here is a tight link between temperatures and the species鈥� survival鈥�, says Weimerskirch. He adds that, regardless of some uncertainty in climate models, it is clear that by 2100 there will be much less sea ice in Antarctica.
Most concerning is that there are no signs that emperor penguins are adapting to changes in the climate.
Journal reference: (DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0806638106)
