President Barack Obama has given a major boost to next month鈥檚 UN climate change negotiations in Copenhagen by offering firm targets for cuts in US greenhouse gas emissions. The move, announced today, has been widely welcomed by climate change campaigners. But although they may seem generous, the proposed targets are in fact far from what developing nations and climate scientists have called for.
by 17聽per cent by 2020 and by 83聽per cent by 2050 鈥渋n the context of an overall deal in Copenhagen that includes robust mitigation contributions from China and the other emerging economies鈥�.
At first glance, that sounds similar to commitments made by other wealthy nations. The European Union, for instance, is aiming to cut its emissions by 20聽per cent cut by 2020 and 80聽per cent by 2050. But the US president is measuring his cuts against 2005 emissions; most other nations use 1990 as a baseline.
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The difference is subtle but significant: US emissions grew by almost 15聽per cent between those dates. Using 1990 as a baseline, Obama鈥檚 pledge translates into a cut of around 4聽per cent.
That is well short of the 25聽to 40聽per cent cuts that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says are required from developed nations to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change.
More cuts may come
The US may, however, achieve bigger cuts than Obama鈥檚 statement makes apparent. It is likely that the pledge relates to a scheme to limit emissions from specific industries, such as the energy sector. Alexia Kelly, a climate policy expert at the World Resources Institute in Washington聽DC, points out that other domestic policies, such improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, will bring further reductions.
The White House announcement does not say how the cuts will be achieved. The House of Representatives has, however, passed a bill containing similar reductions, and the Senate is considering legislation with a slightly more ambitious target. The presence of those bills will at least allow Obama to point to domestic action when negotiating at Copenhagen. He also has the option of bypassing Congress and imposing cuts through existing legislation, such as the Clean Air Act. 鈥淚 suspect that it will be a combination of the two,鈥� says Kelly.
Obama鈥檚 pledge also contains interim targets for the US: a 30聽per cent cut below 2005 levels by 2025 and a 42聽per cent cut by 2030. This addresses one major complaint from developing nations, which have been calling for a more detailed reductions timetable for the next few decades.
Will all this add up to enough incentives to bring China and India 鈥� two major polluters that have so far resisted calls to regulate their emissions 鈥� on board a global deal? 鈥淭hat we don鈥檛 know,鈥� says Kelly. With the UN climate negotiations less than a fortnight away, we may not have to wait long to find out.
