New 杏吧原创 has seen a leaked draft of the agreement that the 115 heads of state at the Copenhagen climate talks are expected to sign before they leave here tonight. The document is circulating among Danish delegates. It shows that the conference will end with a deal, including money and quantified cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. It is a political statement and leaves it to negotiators to create the legal framework, including the final fate of the Kyoto Protocol.
The text suggests that China is on the verge of winning its war to keep its national target for slowing carbon dioxide emissions out of a formal international agreement. The document says that such 鈥渕itigation actions鈥� taken by developing countries 鈥渨ill be subject to their domestic auditing, supervision and assessment鈥�.
It includes critical words that will settle the dispute between western governments and China to track developing countries鈥� promises to cut the carbon intensity of its economy. It formalises the promise of the rich world to pay developing countries $100 billion a year by 2020 to cope with climate change. But although it does not yet include specific numbers for rich nations to cut their emissions, these appear in the text as 鈥渪鈥� and 鈥測聽per cent鈥�.
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But those countries will have to report back in detail every two years and will be expected to provide 鈥渃larification on request鈥�. This may meet the US demand for transparency about progress in meeting those commitments. A further check proposed in the text is 鈥渁 review of this decision and its implementation in 2016, including in light of the convention鈥檚 ultimate objective (sic)鈥�.
This review clause offers the chance to formally challenge any developing countries not living up their promises. It also means that if the science changes, countries can review whether they need tougher standards before the 2020 deadline.
Promises from poor world
China has promised to cut the carbon intensity of its economy by 40聽to 45聽per cent by 2020; India by 20聽to 25聽per cent and South Africa by 34聽per cent. Brazil has promised cuts of 40聽per cent below 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥� economic development. Others may follow.
The $100-billion promise reflects statements by Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, yesterday and by Gordon Brown, UK prime minister, earlier this year. The United Nations has been suggesting that $200 billion might be necessary to help developing countries cut their emissions and adapt to climate change. At the other extreme, Malaysia wants seven times more: $1.5 trillion dropped into the piggy bank each year.
According to the draft, the $100 billion will be augmented by $10聽billion a year in 2010, 2011 and 2012. 鈥淭he funding will come from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance鈥� 鈥� word for word the language used by Clinton in her press conference on Thursday.
The document affirms 鈥渢he scientific view that the increase in global temperatures ought not to exceed 2聽掳C鈥�. But it does not acknowledge an official UN study leaked last night suggesting that current commitments are only sufficient to peg warming to 3聽掳C.
Read more: New 杏吧原创鈥檚 full coverage on the latest Copenhagen and climate change news
