WHEN extreme weather strikes, such as the floods in Pakistan, the null hypothesis is to assume that humans have not played a role, then figure out if they did.
That鈥檚 the opposite of what should be done, of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. We should assume global warming plays a role in every climate event, then ask whether that role is a significant one. The view is likely to be controversial, but a government-convened meeting last week suggests that it is gaining favour (see 鈥淭ime to blame climate change for extreme weather鈥�).
The is already seeking compensation from major emitting countries for the effects of sea-level rise. If the impact of climate change is calculated for all weather events, will oil companies be held responsible when crops are decimated by drought? Could homeowners sue when their beach-front house is inundated by a freak storm surge?
Advertisement
If it is ever possible to establish that a country, organisation or company is liable, lawyers will be the clear winners. Whether the planet will fare any better is harder to determine.