With fears of failure growing by the hour at the climate talks in Canc煤n, Mexico, reports have surfaced that the host nation is trying to come up with a compromise text. It would, according to rumours, essentially turn the Copenhagen Accord agreed by twenty or so leading nations at last year鈥檚 failed conference in Denmark, into an agreed text to be adopted by the whole conference here.
This sounds like a re-run of Copenhagen, when a 2am deal involving the US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, Russia and many more, was vetoed a few torrid hours later by a rump of angry nations excluded from the deal, headed by Bolivia, Venezuela and Sudan.
UN conferences always have this tension between the impossibility of doing things in a meeting of 190 nations and the alienation caused by small groups hammering out a deal they hope to sell on the conference floor later. So is not in itself any kind of scandal.
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But whatever the diplomatic niggles, the fact is that these negotiations are deadlocked.
Even talks about the one element that was expected to be sealed by the end of the week 鈥� an agreement on limiting deforestation, known as REDD 鈥� have become stalled in the last 24 hours. At issue is text over safeguarding biodiversity and the rights of indigenous peoples. According to NGO observers, Brazil appears to be one of those digging its heels in and pushing for a weaker agreement 鈥� despite being a leader in projects to stem deforestation.
Japan and Kyoto
There鈥檚 more irony to be had from the talks over extending the Kyoto Protocol. Climate Action Network, a coalition of international NGOs including Greenpeace and Oxfam, this morning singled out Japan as the greatest obstacle. 鈥淚ts position is putting the talks at risk,鈥� said David Turnball, CAN鈥檚 executive director.
Japan has said that it will not comply with the existing Kyoto Protocol target and is not interested in signing up to a second compliance period.
The US is not a party to the existing protocol and says it has no interest in joining a second compliance period after 2012. It has not made clear whether it will accept any other legally binding formula for its promised 17 per cent cut target.
Washington climate insiders such as Elliot Diringer at the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change say there is no prospect of them signing up for anything binding in the immediate future. He says the best that might be achieved here is an 鈥渁ffirmative declaration of intent to work towards legally binding targets鈥� but with 鈥渘othing on timing or form鈥� of the targets.
Postponed, again
Under the rules of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, any text needs to be approved unanimously. So with radical Bolivian president Evo Morales now in town and winning applause from delegates for blaming capitalism for climate change and calling for 鈥渟ocial forces鈥� to defeat it, things could get even dicier.
Failure to agree an international climate change agreement in Canc煤n will postpone decisions by another year. This has become something of a habit for UN climate talks, and many are tired of the pattern. 鈥淒urban can not be another stop in an endless journey,鈥� said Kumi Naidoo executive director of Greenpeace International earlier today, referring to next year鈥檚 summit, which will be hosted by South Africa. 鈥淒urban has to be an end.鈥�
