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Starting with the premise that we鈥檒l eventually stop using fossil fuels, Robert Laughlin imagines the energy sources of tomorrow

ROBERT LAUGHLIN, a Nobel laureate for his work in quantum physics, starts his study of our energy futures with an absurd proposition 鈥� that it doesn鈥檛 matter much whether we burn all our coal and oil or leave it underground.

It鈥檚 a cop-out, of course. If we burn all the coal, we would probably burn too. But for the purposes of Powering the Future, it means 鈥渨e don鈥檛 have to analyze contemporary energy struggles鈥�. Instead, he moves swiftly on to imagine what a world that does not burn carbon might look like.

He likes nuclear best, and fast breeder reactors in particular, because they will extend the lifetime of available nuclear fuel to 鈥渁bout 20,000 years鈥�. But he also has a soft spot for solar energy, especially solar thermal energy, which uses mirrors in the desert to heat pipes full of liquid. Deployed in the Mojave desert in south-eastern California, he says, the technique could make Los Angeles 鈥渢he world鈥檚 first great solar city鈥�.

Laughlin sees a 鈥渃oming conflict鈥� between nuclear and solar energy for global supremacy. Ever the physicist, he points out that the two are fundamentally the same thing, since 鈥渢he sun is really just a big nuclear reactor in the sky鈥�. But he figures nuclear will win, because the sun鈥檚 energy is too spread out by the time it reaches us. Catching its rays on a huge scale needs far too much land to be practical.

鈥淓ver the physicist, Laughlin points out that the sun is really just a big nuclear reactor in the sky鈥�

There is more room in the ocean depths, which Laughlin sees as the must-have real estate of the future. In a century or so, once we have sorted out how to mass-produce cheap undersea robots, he says that we will be mining the deep for energy.

The robots won鈥檛 be tapping tides or harvesting ocean currents, though. The physics doesn鈥檛 add up to make that worthwhile, he says, and the latter might shut down the thermohaline circulation which helps determine the world鈥檚 climate. Instead he imagines those undersea robots will be drilling into mid-ocean ridges to grab geothermal heat, and superintending huge bags of compressed air as a global energy storage system.

Laughlin says many useful things with a pleasing directness. He points out that ultimately the planet won鈥檛 care much about our carbon dioxide emissions because 鈥渋n about a millennium鈥� the gas will all end up in the ocean. He is less good on how we humans might get by in the meantime. For the planet, though, what we are currently doing to biodiversity will matter more, he points out. Once extinct, always extinct.

He is also frank that electric cars aren鈥檛 a solution. A world of electric automobiles would produce a global garbage nightmare, spreading millions of tonnes of toxic metals across the planet. 鈥淧resent-day searches for ever better batteries are, as a practical matter, searches for ever-more toxic metals to put in them,鈥� he says. Greens, please take note.

Yet, like a distressing number of books by Americans on global topics, this one reads as if Laughlin doesn鈥檛 have a passport. He is too obviously writing for a domestic audience, more willing to talk about the complexity of California鈥檚 energy tariffs or discuss driving through its deserts than go into what he actually thinks about climate change.

Also worrying is his oddly blinkered view of Homo sapiens鈥� social future. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a very safe bet that thousands of years from now鈥� people will have electricity, cars and airplanes.鈥� Why? We will still want cars 鈥渂ecause they鈥檙e status symbols鈥�, he says. Like ostrich feathers in Victorian times, I guess.

Laughlin is, at root, a cornucopian. He sees a world of endless economic advance. 鈥淒emand for energy will grow,鈥� he says. Period. Forever. 鈥淣otwithstanding everyone鈥檚 wish that we could stop this trend.鈥� Demand for what energy produces may well grow, but who wants energy for itself? He says nothing about energy efficiency.

A Stanford University professor for a quarter of a century, I fear he has persuaded himself that, millennia hence, the world will think and live like today鈥檚 Californians.