AS THE uprising in Syria continues, long-term prospects for president Bashar al-Assad鈥檚 regime look increasingly poor 鈥� and that is making western weapons specialists nervous.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a situation the world has never faced before: a country with weapons of mass destruction falling into civil war,鈥� says Charles Blair of the Federation of American 杏吧原创s.
The chief concern is over Syria鈥檚 chemical weapons (CW). The Syrian government started stockpiling CW in the 1980s as a deterrent to attempts at regime change, says Bilal Saab of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, California. It has not joined the Chemical Weapons Convention, a treaty banning CW, so has never declared what it has.
Advertisement
Based on clues such as chemical imports, and satellite images of facilities near Damascus, Aleppo and Homs, Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC has at between 500 and 1000 tonnes, including mustard gas 鈥� used in the first world war 鈥� and nerve agents such as sarin and possibly the more persistent VX. There are also bombs, shells and rockets to deliver them.
Paradoxically, security analysts such as of the Ploughshares Fund, which works to limit the spread of weapons, consider Syria鈥檚 CW a more limited threat if they remain under Assad鈥檚 control. He has never used them, as the use of such taboo weapons invites foreign retaliation.
However, 鈥渋f the revolution topples the regime, it will unwittingly create the gravest chemical weapons threat since the Iran-Iraq war鈥� in the 1980s, Cirincione says.
CW production and storage facilities are . In February, the US confirmed it was to look out for smuggled chemicals.
If the government troops guarding the sites lose control, the chemicals could be accidentally released, used in desperation by cornered commanders, or acquired by terrorist groups, says Saab. 鈥淛ust some of Assad鈥檚 thousands of weapons would provide a terrorist group with a terrifying threat against urban areas,鈥� says Cirincione.
Hence, the US Congressional Research Service : 鈥淚n any regime collapse scenario, the US or others may consider some form of rapid response to secure stockpiles.鈥� That will be difficult, considering how quickly Iraqi explosives and nuclear equipment disappeared after the US-led invasion in 2003, says Blair. 鈥淭he rebels themselves will have to do it,鈥� says Cirincione 鈥� but there is no UN force trained to help them. The UN weapons inspectorate that handled Iraq, he says, 鈥渃ould quickly enter post-Assad Syria to secure the stockpiles 鈥� but they were 鈥�.
Syria contrasts with Libya, which signed up to the CW treaty in 2004 and had destroyed most of its stockpile by 2011 鈥� when Muammar Gaddafi鈥檚 regime was overthrown with NATO assistance. So does that mean CW are a good deterrent? Saab and Cirincione say Syria鈥檚 CW are not what is stopping foreign intervention 鈥� but mishandled intervention may make it harder to keep them under control.