It鈥檚 official. Australia鈥檚 decade-long drought ended this week. But that doesn鈥檛 mean the region is in the clear, warn hydrologists.
鈥淣o predictions have been made on the timing of the next drought, but the scientific view is that in the southeast of Australia, we should expect droughts to become more severe and more frequent,鈥� says , a leading hydrologist at CSIRO, Australia鈥檚 national science agency.
Young says that elements of the recent drought are consistent with what is expected from an event that is driven by climate change. However, researchers have yet to pin down the exact .
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Australia鈥檚 extremes of drought and flood see-saw with the cycles of the El Ni帽o and La Ni帽a climate oscillation. The warming effect of emissions complicates this cycle, so modelling the overall effect is fraught with uncertainty.
The official end of the 鈥淏ig Dry鈥� came on Monday when meteorologists declared the country鈥檚 two remaining drought-hit areas 鈥� Bundarra and Eurobodalla in New South Wales 鈥� free of drought.
The Australian government has a water-management plan which aims to ensure that water will be available in times of drought, says Young. This plan will be reviewed in 2015 to deal better with the consequences of climate change.
