TODAY鈥橲 technology is often said to be developing at an exponential rate, and its growth is almost as often described in terms of evolution, in stark contrast to Thomas Edison鈥檚 celebrated 鈥渋nspiration and perspiration鈥� formula for invention.
Some who take this view seem to equate evolution with the unstoppable march of progress 鈥� a correspondence that biologists have long since abandoned. Nowhere is this more evident than among those who believe we are approaching the Singularity 鈥� a moment when technological development outstrips our ability to understand it, much less manage it.
But this doesn鈥檛 stand up to closer examination. What we perceive in the short term as explosive progress may dissolve into near stasis if we take a longer view. Little comfort there for the Singulatarians.
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That鈥檚 not to deny that we are in an era of rapid progress, with all kinds of technologies obeying Moore鈥檚 law. But we cannot assume this will continue forever, and history suggests it won鈥檛 (see 鈥�Busted! The myth of technological progress鈥�). Perhaps we should stop seeking grandiose metaphors: Edison had it right after all.
