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Editorial: 鈥�Experimenting with drugs in the US鈥�

TWO states in the US are now more cannabis-friendly than many parts of Europe. Thanks to ballot initiatives passed by Colorado and Washington last week, people there now have legal access to as much recreational marijuana as they can grow, sell or smoke.

This is still illegal under US federal law, but if the states are left alone, the legalisation could launch a living experiment into how people behave when drug laws are relaxed, and into the public-health implications and the effect on the drug cartels.

鈥淭he Feds now have to decide whether to make that experiment impossible,鈥� says , a professor of public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles.

The Obama administration has yet to give its response to the votes, but a statement from the US Drug Enforcement Agency, which treats marijuana as an illegal drug, said: 鈥淭he department鈥檚 enforcement of the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged.鈥�

, says that federal agencies have the authority to arrest anyone possessing marijuana, but they cannot stop the states from passing the laws, or make the states enforce federal law.

Still, the federal government could make life very difficult for the new industry, Mikos says, by seizing growers鈥� assets or prohibiting banks from opening accounts for people committing federal crimes. But even if the US government does crack down, Mikos says, it is not going to make much of a difference. 鈥淚t will put a dent in the industry, but it will also affect the shape of it.鈥� Small businesses will learn how to fly under the radar, he says, and state regulators will have to craft their new laws around federal law.

The biggest impact of full legalisation might be to permit research into cannabis that is currently impossible. No country has ever completely legalised marijuana. Portugal has decriminalised it and other drugs, but not legalised them. And in the Netherlands, where pot can be readily obtained in 鈥渃offee shops鈥�, possession of small amounts of cannabis is decriminalised, and producing and selling the drug remains illegal. To understand the effect of cannabis on health, researchers need to measure individuals鈥� exposures to the drug over time and relate that to their health problems, says of the University of Bristol, UK. Doing such long-term studies in large groups of people is very difficult when use is illegal. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 even get good self-reported use levels,鈥� he says.

Even in the Netherlands, properly documented large-scale health studies have not been done because it is hard to convince people to reveal the kind of information needed. Under full legalisation, this should be possible. 鈥淚t will be a natural experiment鈥�, both into the impact of the policy on drug use and of drug use on users, says of Norwegian Social Research in Oslo.

鈥淚t will become a natural experiment into the impact of legalisation on drug use and of drug use on users鈥�

Legalisation should also give researchers insight into how cannabis affects psychological problems, including settling the debate on whether it causes psychosis. Another big question is its impact on alcohol and tobacco use. People who use marijuana are more likely to drink alcohol than non-users, but researchers are not sure whether the two forms of intoxication reinforce one another or substitute for one another. If it is the latter, then legalising marijuana might be the best thing a state can do: alcohol generates a lot more social harm, says Jonathan Caulkins of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

David Nutt of Imperial College London, former head of the UK government鈥檚 Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs, points out that 鈥� after they legalised medical marijuana鈥�.

That is one of the few effects of medical marijuana that has been measured. Cannabis for medicinal use is legal in 18 US states, and the legal dispensaries have data on its effects 鈥� but no one is using the data. 鈥淧eople at the National Institutes of Health would like to assess the therapeutic benefits, but under US law they aren鈥檛 allowed to,鈥� says Nutt. Research by the US , says a spokesperson, only 鈥渇ocuses on the negative aspects of drugs鈥�.

The legal limbo between federal and state governments won鈥檛 be sustainable for much longer, many people feel. 鈥淥bama鈥檚 got a tough decision on his hands,鈥� says Caulkins. Several medical dispensaries in California that allegedly sold to anyone , but 鈥渇or every one they close down, another pops up鈥�, says Mikos.

Obama also faces international pressure to make a decision. Mexico鈥檚 incoming president, Enrique Pe帽a Nieto, has said his top priority is to decrease drug violence rather than to clamp down on drugs. If people in the US start buying American-grown marijuana, it could deal a significant blow to Mexico鈥檚 violent drug cartels. Research from the RAND Drug Policy Research Center in Santa Monica, California, estimates that : about $6 billion to $8 billion. Another study estimated that legalisation in Washington alone would subtract $1.4 billion from the cartels鈥� profits, but it is unclear whether this would reduce the violence. In response to the states鈥� laws, Luis Videgaray Caso, head of Pe帽a Nieto鈥檚 transition team, said he was not sure whether Mexico could continue to .

鈥淭his is a watershed moment,鈥� says Caulkins. 鈥淚f this goes well over the next few years, the weight of public opinion could change quickly.鈥� Mikos agrees, and says that if those states generate a lot of money from tax revenues, their neighbours may adopt similar measures. If so, 鈥渢hese laws could fundamentally change America鈥檚 relationship with marijuana鈥�.

鈥淭his is a watershed moment. If it goes well, the weight of public opinion could change quickly鈥�