China is fast becoming a world leader in the fight against climate change.
In the past year, it has halved the growth in electricity demand, continued to increase its wind and solar energy production, and is in the process of developing emissions trading schemes to cover a quarter of a billion people.
The US is also doing well, although much of its improvement comes from a shift away from oil in favour of cheaper gas and a slower economy, rather than as a result of direct action on climate change.
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That鈥檚 the conclusion of the latest in a series of reports entitled 鈥淭he Critical Decade鈥� published by Australia鈥檚 Climate Commission, and . The report focuses on the US and China, which together produce 37 per cent of the world鈥檚 emissions. Earlier this month, the two nations issued a and 鈥渟et the kind of powerful example that can inspire the world鈥�.
The report describes China鈥檚 development of renewable energy as 鈥渆xtraordinary鈥�, pointing to a 50-fold increase in the amount of energy generated from wind power since 2005. Its investment in clean energy in 2012 was $65.1 billion, which represents 30 per cent of the total investment by G20 nations that year. The government is developing seven emissions trading schemes around the country that will include 256 million people and 3.4 per cent of the global economy. The schemes are expected to start this year in some regions with the expectation that they will be rolled out nationwide from 2015.
Emissions still rising
China鈥檚 greenhouse gas emissions aren鈥檛 expected to peak until 2025 at the earliest. However, the country has reduced its carbon intensity 鈥� the amount it emits per unit of GDP 鈥� by 5 per cent in 2012, which means it is on track to meet its pledge to reduce its carbon intensity by 40 per cent by 2020. The idea is to give China room to continue economic development, while doing so in a sustainable way as possible.
The US is also on track to meet its goal of reducing absolute emissions to 83 per cent of 2005 levels by 2020, with California鈥檚 emissions trading scheme playing a role, as well as the country鈥檚 $35.6 billion investment in renewable energy, second only to China. However, other factors have also helped, with the slower economy causing emissions to slump, and its ambition to be energy independent leading to an increase in domestic gas use rather than imported oil.
, an economist at Fudan University in Shanghai, China, says the US got lucky on low emissions, which are not entirely down to its emissions policy. Since the 鈥淯S is now in an easy position鈥�, it might push China towards stronger targets, he says.
Good, but can do better
Around the world, one third of countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), including the US, have achieved absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining economic growth. That proves 鈥渃ountries can continue to grow their economies while shrinking their emissions鈥�, the report notes.
鈥淭here is significant momentum being driven by a mix of economic, political and environmental motivations,鈥� says from the University of Melbourne. 鈥淭hat in turn creates a range of risks that these trends could fall over or head in unpredictable directions.鈥� He says that while the US鈥檚 energy independence policy has led to an increased uptake of renewables, it also uses more gas and is working to exploit carbon-intensive tar sand oil.
鈥淭his report reminds us that we do still have the knowledge and time to drastically lower emissions, and lessen the impact of future climate change,鈥� says from the University of Sydney. He warns however, that the pace must accelerate.
The report鈥檚 authors, who include Tim Flannery, Australia鈥檚 chief climate commissioner, agree 鈥� describing this as the critical decade to accelerate climate change action. 鈥淭his decade must set the foundations to reduce emissions rapidly to nearly zero by 2050. The earlier such action is under way the less disruptive and costly it will be,鈥� they write.
