鈥淰IOLENCE is the last refuge of the incompetent.鈥� So says Salvor Hardin in Isaac Asimov鈥檚 celebrated 1951 novel Foundation, which imagines an organisation dedicated to predicting and reshaping the course of human history 鈥� in this case, the fate of the Galactic Empire 鈥� through the use of a statistical discipline dubbed 鈥減sychohistory鈥�.
For more than half a century, psychohistory has been no more than a fantasy. But the power of 鈥渂ig data鈥� makes it conceivable that some modest version of these predictive powers is achievable. For example, researchers hope that a new database of geopolitical events will eventually help them to project how conflicts will play out (see 鈥�World鈥檚 largest events database could predict conflict鈥�).
Forecasting is one thing. Intervention, or prevention, is quite another. Choosing the appropriate action will be tricky. In Asimov鈥檚 book, the cabal of psychohistorians trying to direct events is reined in by hard-headed politico Hardin. It will be interesting to find out if his real life counterparts share his view on the use of force.
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This article appeared in print under the headline 鈥淎 Foundation for the future鈥�